Is Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $62.14, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) sits below every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $75.37 and $149.27 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 77% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -10.1% annual revenue growth for BMY. Our base case instead compounds to about -6.3% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, BMY's modeled DCF value ranges from about $45.66 to $185.30 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Bristol-Myers Squibb Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of BMY's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind BMY's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $48,194,000,000 | BMY FY2025 10-K (accession 0000014272-26-000004, filed 2026-02-11): us-gaap:Revenues FY2025 = $48,194M, essentially flat on FY2024's $48,300M (-1% ex-FX). The flat total hides the whole story: Growth Portfolio +17% to $26,409M, Legacy Portfolio -15% to $21,785M (Eliquis $14,443M; Revlimid $2,951M; Pomalyst $2,733M; Sprycel $493M; Abraxane $368M). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $24,462M, +4.2% on H1 2025's $23,470M (Q2 alone $12,973M, +6%). UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows this figure by forecast.revenue_growth, and FY2026 is guided. |
| Base EBIT margin | 33.1% | Assumption — BMY Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000014272-26-000002, filed 2026-02-05) + BMY FY2025 10-K (accession 0000014272-26-000004, filed 2026-02-11): DERIVED, and the treatment of Acquired IPRD is the point. BMY's GAAP operating lines for FY2025: revenue $48,194M - cost of products sold $13,936M - SG&A $7,267M - R&D $9,951M - Acquired IPRD $3,721M - amortization of acquired intangibles $3,317M = $10,002M (20.75%). That figure is not usable as a run-rate because two lines are lumpy deal accounting: Acquired IPRD was $913M in 2023, $13,373M in 2024 (Karuna $12,122M) and $3,721M in 2025, and $94M in H1 2026; acquired-intangible amortization is the non-cash tail of Celgene and other past deals and fell from $8,872M (2024) to $3,317M (2025) to $874M in H1 2026 as Revlimid and Pomalyst rights were fully amortized. TREATMENT: start from BMY's own non-GAAP operating lines (gross profit $35,000M - SG&A $7,149M - R&D $9,492M = $18,359M, 38.09%), which exclude amortization, $949M of non-cash intangible/IPRD impairments and small site-exit/acquisition charges, then charge a NORMALIZED business-development cost of 5.0% of revenue ($2,410M) in place of the actual $3,721M of Acquired IPRD: (18,359 - 2,410) / 48,194 = 33.09%. BMY's own non-GAAP EPS INCLUDES Acquired IPRD, so this is the company's definition with the lumpy line smoothed, not a flattering adjustment. On the same derivation with the ACTUAL IPRD, FY2025 was 30.37%. Because amortization is excluded here, D&A below is depreciation only (consistent). CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: non-GAAP GP $17,343M - SG&A $3,442M - R&D $4,554M = $9,347M (38.2% before BD), Acquired IPRD only $94M. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 3% → -3% → -17% → -13% → 0% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate shared by every researched model in this run. |
| Beta | 0.45 | Assumption — normalized estimate (Blume-adjusted published beta, cross-checked): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.184 (yfinance, read 2026-10-05); my own 60-month regression on dividend-adjusted closes vs the S&P 500 gives 0.188, so it is not a data error. NORMALIZED UP to 0.45 with the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 x 0.184 + 0.33 = 0.453), the method this tracker used for McDonald's and AT&T. CONSERVATIVE: it raises WACC and LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.184 BMY's cost of equity would be 6.2%, roughly equal to the ~6.1% it would pay on a new bond — equity facing a 2028 patent cliff cannot sensibly be priced like senior debt. The low figure measures low CORRELATION (BMY fell through 2023-24 while the market rose), not low risk. Two independent cross-checks land in the same place: my 10-year monthly regression (Oct-2016 to Sep-2026, 120 months) gives 0.408, and the 10-year regressions of PFE 0.534, MRK 0.300, JNJ 0.463, ABBV 0.537 have a median of ~0.50. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $7-8/share; the published 0.184 would give ~$100.54. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. FLAG: this is a real judgement for BMY, not a formality. The terminal year (2030) is the trough after Eliquis and US Opdivo, and 2.5% forever assumes BMY keeps replacing each wave of patent expiries — and more are scheduled: Opdivo EU 2030, Reblozyl US 2031, Breyanzi/Zeposia/Sotyktu 2033. The normalized 5% BD charge is what pays for that replacement. 1.5% takes the value to ~$61.72; 0% to ~$48.73. Must remain < WACC of 6.83%. |
| Diluted shares | 2,048M | BMY Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000014272-26-000018, filed 2026-07-30): Weighted-average diluted shares 2,048M for Q2 2026 and for H1 2026 (FY2025: 2,039M). BMY has repurchased no stock since 2023 ($5,155M that year), so the count drifts up ~0.4%/yr with stock compensation. Shares outstanding 2,042.7M (yfinance). |
| Market price | $62.14 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:21 UTC |
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