Is Masco Corporation (MAS) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $85.92, Masco Corporation (MAS) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $41.90 and $123.60 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Masco Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 12.9% annual revenue growth for MAS. Our base case instead compounds to about 2.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MAS's modeled DCF value ranges from about $28.69 to $67.25 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Masco Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MAS's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind MAS's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $7,562,000,000 | Masco FY2025 10-K (accession 0000062996-26-000005, filed 2026-02-10), calendar year ended 2025-12-31: Net sales $7,562M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax), -3.4% on FY2024's $7,828M; -2% in local currency excluding the Kichler lighting divestiture (Q3 2024). THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR OF DECLINE from the FY2022 peak of $8,680M (FY2023 $7,967M, FY2024 $7,828M): North America volume fell in each year and Decorative Architectural (Behr paint) fell 14% in FY2025 (-8% ex Kichler and currency) on weak DIY paint demand. Plumbing grew 3%. Mix: 21% of FY2025 sales were outside North America (mostly hansgrohe in Europe); $2,859M (38%) went to a single customer, The Home Depot. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 net sales $3,910M, +1.5% on H1 2025's $3,852M, but flat in local currency (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-07-29): price +3%, North America volume -3%; Q2 alone fell 3% to $1,992M. Trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30: $7,620M. Bristan (UK taps and showers, ~GBP 63M of revenue, ~1.1% of sales) was sold on 2026-07-28 and is still inside this base - see special_cases. |
| Base EBIT margin | 16.5% | Masco Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000062996-26-000004, filed 2026-02-10) + FY2025 10-K (accession 0000062996-26-000005): GAAP operating profit $1,248M / net sales $7,562M = 16.50% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, ties to the 10-K). GAAP, i.e. AFTER $19M of rationalization charges and a $5M intangible impairment; management's adjusted margin was 16.8% ($1,272M). History on the same tag (10-K filings): 16.2% FY2019, 18.0% FY2020, 16.8% FY2021, 14.9% FY2022, 16.9% FY2023, 17.4% FY2024, 16.5% FY2025 - a business that holds mid-to-high teens margins through a housing downturn, which is the quality case for it. FY2025's dip came from commodity and tariff costs (mostly China-sourced plumbing) and lower volume. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: GAAP operating profit $787M = 20.1% of sales (18.1% in H1 2025), BUT that includes a ~$95M NET benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds booked in Q2 (10-Q Note G); excluding it H1 is $692M = 17.7%, up ~60bp on H1 2025 on price and cost savings. Operating leases: $63M of FY2025 operating lease cost stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating lease liabilities out of net debt. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 2% → 2% → 3% → 3% → 3% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. As with Home Depot, the same rate drives the mortgage rates that hold housing turnover - and therefore big-ticket remodelling - down, so it hurts this valuation twice. |
| Beta | 1.29 | Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.294, used AS IS - no normalization, the same policy as Home Depot (0.955 in this tracker). The window covers the 2021-22 remodelling boom and the 2022-23 rate shock, which is genuine housing-cycle exposure, and Masco's higher beta than its biggest customer's is plausible: a manufacturer with ~38% of sales to one retailer, commodity-input exposure and fixed-cost leverage. THIS IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST LEVER IN THE MODEL: each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $3.10/share (1.194 gives ~$45.18; 1.394 ~$38.94), and a beta of ~0.70 (WACC ~8.0%) is what today's price needs - see what_market_believes. A Blume-style adjustment toward 1.0 (~1.20) would add ~$3; not applied because no other model in the tracker uses one. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. Neither generous nor stingy for Masco: sales compounded ~2.0% a year FY2019-FY2025 through a boom and a bust, while management targets 3-4% through 2028. 3.0% adds ~$3.10/share; 2.0% takes ~$2.70 off. Must remain < WACC of 10.36%. |
| Diluted shares | 199M | Masco Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000062996-26-000027) Note I + 8-K Ex-99.1 (2026-07-29): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 199M (basic 199M; dilutive awards round to zero); H1 201M; FY2025 210M. Reported in whole millions only. THE COUNT IS FALLING FAST: 7.8M shares were repurchased and retired in H1 2026 for ~$596M, including a $300M accelerated repurchase completed 2026-07-27 that delivered a further ~0.8M shares; 197.19M were outstanding at 2026-06-30, and management plans ~$1.0B of buybacks or acquisitions in 2026 and guides a 200M average diluted count. Using the weighted count is the house rule and is mildly conservative here: the June-quarter weighted figure still includes shares that the 2026-06-30 cash balance has already paid to retire. Using ~196.4M (outstanding after the ASR settlement) would add ~$0.55/share. |
| Market price | $85.92 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 04:56 UTC |
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