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Is Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) overvalued or undervalued?

Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice

Fair-value range
$239.03 – $858.14
Market price
$641.37
Gap to fair value
—
Verdict
Price inside a range too wide to call either way

Test the assumptions — move the discount rate

The DCF value below is a real engine result at each WACC (not a re-estimate). Drag to see how sensitive META's DCF is to the discount rate.

Market price: $641.37

At a recent price of $641.37, Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $239.03 and $858.14 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.

The valuation discounts Meta Platforms, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 76% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — META would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 14.2% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, META's modeled DCF value ranges from about $209.22 to $381.69 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Meta Platforms, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of META's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

The assumptions behind META's DCF

InputValueSource
Base-year revenue$200,966,000,000Meta FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-003942, filed 2026-01-29); ties to 4Q25 release 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001628280-26-003832): Total revenue FY2025, +22% on FY2024's $164,501M (+22% constant currency). Family of Apps $198,759M (advertising $196,175M + other $2,584M); Reality Labs $2,207M. UNCHANGED as the base; the 2026 acceleration belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: revenue $117,111M, +30.4% on H1 2025's $89,830M (+28% cc), per the 2Q26 release. Ad impressions +14% and price per ad +12% in Q2 2026 — both volume and price are growing, so the acceleration is not just currency.
Base EBIT margin41.4%Meta FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-003942, filed 2026-01-29): GAAP income from operations $83,276M / revenue $200,966M = 41.44%. REALITY LABS IS INSIDE THIS NUMBER: Family of Apps earned $102,469M (51.6% of FoA revenue) and Reality Labs LOST $19,193M, which is 9.6 points of consolidated margin. The model values the consolidated company, so RL's losses are carried in every forecast year (see forecast.ebit_margin for the decision on whether they persist). SBC of $20,427M is expensed inside this figure. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: $41,647M / $117,111M = 35.56%, down from 42.30% in H1 2025, with Q2 alone at 30.9% after $2.40B of legal charges and $1.18B of severance (36.8% excluding both). The base year is the last year BEFORE the AI depreciation wave reached the income statement — this margin will not be seen again in this forecast, and the model says so rather than anchoring to it.
Forecast revenue growth25% → 16% → 13% → 10% → 8%Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rate5.2%US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared house input across every model in this tracker.
Beta1.24Yahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.243, used AS-IS — no normalization. I considered and rejected adjusting it: the window includes the 2022 drawdown (-64% peak to trough) and the September 2026 run (roughly +25% in a month), which push in opposite directions, and Meta's equity really has behaved like a high-beta growth stock while it doubles capex. Sensitivity: a beta of 1.0 (WACC ~10.0%) adds roughly $48/share; the house WACC with this beta is ~11.2%. It is a large contributor to the gap but not the whole of it: even a beta of 0.65 (WACC ~8.4%) gives only ~$421/share.
Terminal growth2.5%Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. Arguably conservative for a company still growing 25%: the step from 8% in 2030 to 2.5% forever is abrupt. A 3.0% terminal rate adds ~$14/share; 2.0% takes ~$12 off. Must remain well below WACC (~11.2%) and does.
Diluted shares2,566MMeta 2Q 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001628280-26-050596, filed 2026-07-29): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 2,566M (H1 2026 2,565M; FY2025 2,574M; Q2 2025 2,570M). Basic was 2,543M. The count has stopped falling: Meta made NO buybacks in H1 2026 (vs $22.9B in H1 2025) as capex absorbed cash, while still withholding $8.7B of stock for RSU taxes. Diluted is used because that is how this model carries SBC dilution.
Market price$641.37Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 04:57 UTC

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TickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.