Is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $269.00, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $40.37 and $40.37 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Moderna, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About -285% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — MRNA would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 11.1% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MRNA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $7.58 to $11.98 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Moderna, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MRNA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind MRNA's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $1,944,000,000 | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-20) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: FY2025 total revenue $1,944M = net product sales $1,818M (COVID $1,810M — Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE — plus RSV $8M) + other revenue $126M. The filed trajectory this base sits on: FY2023 $6,848M → FY2024 $3,236M → FY2025 $1,944M, as pandemic-era government COVID contracts rolled off into a commercial market. 9M 2025 revenue was $1,266M (Q3 2026 10-Q comparatives), so Q4 2025 alone was $678M — the respiratory business is violently seasonal, with the year made or lost in Q3/Q4 deliveries; every margin and cash figure in this file has to be read with that seasonality in mind. |
| Base EBIT margin | -158.1% | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-20) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: Filed operating loss −$3,074M on revenue of $1,944M = −158.1%. The loss is a fixed-cost business on a collapsed top line, not a variable-cost one: cost of sales $868M (including $291M of inventory write-downs and $24M of losses on firm purchase commitments, per the 10-K notes), R&D $3,132M, SG&A $1,018M. The filed path around it: FY2023 −61.9% (operating loss −$4,239M on $6,848M), FY2024 −121.9% (−$3,945M on $3,236M), FY2025 −158.1%, 9M 2026 −112.2% as reported (−$2,073M on $1,847M) and −64.1% excluding the one-time Arbutus/Genevant settlement charge in cost of sales (see special_cases); Q3 2026 alone — the peak delivery quarter — printed operating INCOME of +$130M (+9.9%, +10.4% ex-settlement). Stock-based compensation of $483M sits inside the FY2025 loss and is never added back (see sbc_treatment). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 20% → 12% → 10% → 8% → 6% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker, held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (4.96% on 2026-10-22); refreshing it for MRNA alone would print a higher value and break comparability — it is a tracker-wide update, flagged here rather than smuggled into one company's model. |
| Beta | 1.13 | Assumption — Finnhub price history for MRNA and SPY (the S&P 500 proxy) — own regressions of MRNA on SPY, measured 2026-11-07; Finnhub published beta as cross-check: Median of five own measured windows against SPY (Finnhub daily/weekly/monthly price history, measured 2026-11-07): 1.13 (5Y monthly), −0.04 (3Y monthly), −0.05 (1Y weekly), 2.32 (1Y daily), 2.75 (6M daily) — median 1.13. Read the dispersion before the median: it is the filing story told in prices. For three years MRNA melted down on its own schedule (revenue $6,848M → $1,944M) while the index rose, so the monthly and weekly windows read ~zero; then, on 2026-08-19, the stock repriced vertically on the intismeran Phase 3 readout (a +177% single-day close in the daily history) and every short window since reads like a different company (daily betas 2.3–2.8, annualized volatility to match). There is no stable beta here; 1.13 is the median of the measurable windows, it coincides with the 5Y monthly window, and the published cross-check brackets it (Finnhub prints 1.249). No shrink is applied. Each window extreme is priced in the explainer — and the decomposition shows the price cannot be reached at ANY beta, including zero, so this choice is documented but is not what decides the answer. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker. For Moderna it deserves one sentence of defence: the 2030 base this grows is a respiratory-vaccine franchise with five approved products and a cost base already cut to the framework — a 2.5% perpetual growth on that year's cash flow is a modelling convention about the post-2030 franchise (flu and combination vaccines as annual products, oncology layered on top), not a claim that any single product grows forever. |
| Diluted shares | 405M | Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-11-06) — cover page, Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets and Note 15, Net Earnings (Loss) per Share: OUTSTANDING census, to the share: 404,620,975 shares outstanding at 2026-10-30 (10-Q cover; the balance-sheet face prints 404M issued and outstanding at 2026-09-30, up from 394M at 2025-12-31 — the increase is equity-plan exercises and vesting, including 4M shares exercised in Q3 alone as the price spiked). This is a share COUNT paired with the September 30 bridge, not a weighted average. DELIBERATELY EXCLUDED, each priced or named in the explainer: (1) the 2032 convertible notes — in the bridge at carrying value, so their ~14.246M if-converted shares (at the $210.58 conversion price, IN the money at the $241.46 model price) are not also counted here; the if-converted variant is priced; the company's $329M of capped calls (covering ~14M shares to a $392.62 cap) are disclosure only, as in every house model; (2) equity awards — the filing's own diluted count equals basic (398M weighted) for the loss-making nine months because the awards (37M share equivalents) and the converts (14M) are anti-dilutive AS FILED; in the one profitable quarter (Q3 2026) the filed diluted count was 430M (basic 401M + awards 24M + a part-period 5M for the converts), and that 430M census is priced as a variant. $722M of unrecognized stock compensation over a 2.6-year weighted-average period guarantees the outstanding count keeps growing; the model carries dilution through the census variants, not by shrinking the count it uses. |
| Market price | $269.00 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:53 UTC |
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