Is Pfizer Inc. (PFE) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $29.23, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $21.81 and $72.29 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Pfizer Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -0.4% annual revenue growth for PFE. Our base case instead compounds to about -4.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, PFE's modeled DCF value ranges from about $12.20 to $54.34 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Pfizer Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of PFE's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind PFE's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $62,579,000,000 | PFE FY2025 10-K (accession 0000078003-26-000026, filed 2026-02-26): us-gaap:Revenues FY2025 = $62,579M (product $51,663M + alliance $9,266M + royalty $1,650M), -2% on FY2024's $63,627M; ex-COVID products +6% operationally. The mix is the whole story: COVID products (Comirnaty $4,367M + Paxlovid $2,362M = $6,729M) are fading, and ~$22.7B sits in products losing protection 2026-28 (Eliquis $7,961M, Vyndaqel family $6,380M, Ibrance $4,122M, Xtandi $2,194M, Xeljanz $1,087M, Adcetris $907M). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $29,484M, +4% on H1 2025's $28,367M (+2% operational; Q2 alone $15,034M, +3%). UNCHANGED as the base; FY2026 is guided. |
| Base EBIT margin | 30.2% | Assumption — PFE Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0000078003-26-000005, filed 2026-02-03) + PFE FY2025 10-K (accession 0000078003-26-000026, filed 2026-02-26): DERIVED; the treatment of deal accounting is the point (same method as this tracker's BMY and SNY models). GAAP FY2025: revenue $62,579M - cost of sales $16,067M - SI&A $13,794M - R&D $10,437M - Acquired IPR&D $1,613M - amortization of intangibles $4,874M (mostly Seagen, Biohaven, Arena, GBT) - restructuring/acquisition costs $1,550M = $14,244M (22.8%), before $6,724M of 'other deductions' that include $4,940M of intangible impairments. Not a run-rate. TREATMENT: start from Pfizer's own Adjusted lines (cost of sales $15,141M, SI&A $13,642M, R&D $10,212M) = $23,584M (37.69%), which exclude amortization, inventory step-up, restructuring and impairments, then charge a NORMALIZED 7.5% of revenue in place of the lumpy lines = 6.0% business development + 1.5% recurring restructuring (basis in special_cases): 37.69% - 7.5% = 30.19%. Pfizer books most deals as business combinations (Seagen $43.4B 2023, Metsera $6.9B 2025), so they never touch Acquired IPR&D ($1,613M in 2025, $108M in 2024) — a charge is needed or the model treats bought pipeline as free. Because amortization is excluded, D&A below is depreciation only. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: adjusted revenue $29,484M - COGS $7,061M - SI&A $6,259M - R&D $5,164M = $11,000M (37.3% before the charge). |
| Forecast revenue growth | -2% → -5% → -11% → -5% → 1% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate shared by every researched model in this run. |
| Beta | 0.52 | Assumption — normalized estimate (Blume-adjusted published beta, cross-checked): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.276 (yfinance, read 2026-10-05); my own 60-month regression of dividend-adjusted monthly returns on the S&P 500 (Oct-2021 to Sep-2026) gives 0.318, so it is not a data error. NORMALIZED UP to 0.52 with the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 x 0.276 + 0.33 = 0.515), the same method this tracker used for BMY (0.184 -> 0.45) and SNY (0.281 -> 0.52). CONSERVATIVE: raises WACC and LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.276 Pfizer's cost of equity would be 6.6%, barely above the ~6.1% it would pay on a new bond — not credible for a company walking into a 2026-28 patent cliff. The low figure measures low correlation (Pfizer fell ~45% from its 2021 COVID peak while the market rose), not low risk. Cross-check: my 120-month regression (Oct-2016 to Sep-2026) gives 0.534, and the 10-year peer median used in the BMY/SNY models is ~0.50. The published 0.276 would give ~$28.60 (+$6.79/share); 0.65 would give ~$19.14. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. FLAG: a real judgement for Pfizer, not a formality. The terminal year (2030) sits just after the Eliquis/Ibrance/Xtandi cliff, and 2.5% forever assumes Pfizer keeps replacing each wave of expiries — more are scheduled (Braftovi 2030, Vyndamax US settlement date mid-2031, Padcev/Lorbrena 2033). The normalized 6% BD charge is what pays for that replacement. Must remain < WACC of ~7.08%. |
| Diluted shares | 5,734M | PFE Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 (accession 0000078003-26-000094, filed 2026-08-04): Diluted weighted-average shares 5,734M used for Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS (the GAAP loss per share used the 5,699M basic count because dilution would be anti-dilutive). 2026 guidance assumes ~5.74B and no buybacks; none since 2022. Shares outstanding 5,699.7M (yfinance). |
| Market price | $29.23 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:01 UTC |
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