Is Intuit Inc. (INTU) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $338.23, Intuit Inc. (INTU) trades 3% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $329.54 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices INTU overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -2.6% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values INTU at about $352.40 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Intuit Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 1.6% annual revenue growth for INTU. Our base case instead compounds to about 7.4% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, INTU's modeled DCF value ranges from about $267.84 to $526.03 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Intuit Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of INTU's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind INTU's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $21,448,000,000 | Intuit FY2026 10-K (accession 0000896878-26-000037, filed 2026-09-09): Total net revenue FY2026 (year ended 2026-07-31), us-gaap:Revenues $21,448M, +13.9% on FY2025's $18,831M (FY2024 $16,285M, FY2023 $14,368M). Ties to the Q4 release (Table A). Mix: Global Business Solutions $12.9B (+16%; +18% ex-Mailchimp), Consumer $8.6B (+11%) — TurboTax $5.3B (+7%), Credit Karma $2.6B (+20%), ProTax $647M (+4%). CROSS-CHECK ON THE LATEST QUARTER: Q4 FY2026 revenue $4,354M, +13.7% YoY — no deceleration inside the year. The deceleration arrives in the FY2027 guide (9-10%), which is why it sits in the forecast and not here. Intuit is highly seasonal: Q3 (Feb-Apr, tax season) is ~40% of revenue and ~68% of GAAP operating income, so a single quarter is not a run-rate. |
| Base EBIT margin | 27.4% | Intuit FY2026 10-K (accession 0000896878-26-000037, filed 2026-09-09): GAAP operating income $5,884M / revenue $21,448M = 27.43% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, tagged). Kept as REPORTED, including two things a reader should see: (1) $293M of Q4 restructuring for the 17% workforce cut announced 2026-05-20 (1.37 pts; ex-restructuring the margin is 28.80%), and (2) $659M of acquired-intangible amortization ($174M acquired technology + $485M other acquired intangibles, 3.07 pts) from the Credit Karma (2020) and Mailchimp (2021) deals, which this model deliberately leaves as an expense — see da_pct_revenue. SBC of $2,056M (9.6% of revenue) is also inside it. Trend: 23.3% (FY2024), 26.1% (FY2025), 27.4% (FY2026). The base margin only feeds the peak-margin test; the forecast starts from the FY2027 GAAP guide. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 9% → 8% → 8% → 6% → 6% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 0.98 | yfinance / Yahoo 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.976, used AS PUBLISHED — no normalization. Considered and rejected both directions: (up) the 2026 collapse is idiosyncratic, AI-disruption repricing, which a regression against the market barely registers, so one could argue the published figure understates risk; (down) Intuit's revenue is ~40% tax-season-driven and largely non-cyclical. Neither argument is strong enough to override the published number. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $22-26/share (1.076 gives ~$331; 0.8 gives ~$398). The reverse DCF needs a beta of ~1.36 (WACC ~11.5%) to reach today's price. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Not generous for Intuit specifically: the small-business and consumer-finance markets it sells into grow with nominal GDP, and its pricing power has been real (QuickBooks Online Accounting +20-23% on higher effective prices). But AI-driven commoditisation of tax prep is the live counter-argument. 2.0% takes ~$18/share off. Well below WACC of 9.70%. |
| Diluted shares | 272M | Intuit Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.01 filed 2026-08-25 (accession 0000896878-26-000029): Q4 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares, 272M (Table A; FY2026 full year 277M, Q3 276M, Q1 281M). Falling ~2% a year because buybacks ($5.5B in FY2026, up 96%; $7.9B authorization remaining) more than offset SBC issuance. The 10-K cover shows 267,236,000 shares outstanding at 2026-08-31, so 272M is mildly CONSERVATIVE (~1.8%, ~$6/share). The model does not credit future buybacks. |
| Market price | $338.23 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:01 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Technology stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive INTU valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.