Is Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $214.94, Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) trades 30% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $164.76 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices CRM overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -23.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values CRM at about $131.84 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Salesforce, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 73% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 19.3% annual revenue growth for CRM. Our base case instead compounds to about 8.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CRM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $93.16 to $207.78 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Salesforce, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CRM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind CRM's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $41,525,000,000 | Salesforce FY2026 10-K (fiscal year ended 2026-01-31; accession 0001108524-26-000060, filed 2026-03-02): Total revenues FY2026 (year ended 31 January 2026), us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax. +9.6% on FY2025's $37,895M. Includes ~$0.4B from Informatica, acquired November 2025 for ~$9.6B, so organic growth was ~8.5%. CROSS-CHECK, H1 FY2027 (six months to 2026-07-31, Q2 8-K Ex-99.1): revenue $22,478M, +12.0% on H1 FY2026's $20,065M. Q2 alone was $11,345M, +10.8%, of which $456M was Informatica — so Q2 ORGANIC growth was ~6.4% ((11,345-456)/10,236), my arithmetic, not a Salesforce figure. That organic number is the one to hold the forecast against. |
| Base EBIT margin | 20.1% | Salesforce FY2026 10-K (accession 0001108524-26-000060): GAAP income from operations $8,331M / revenue $41,525M = 20.06%. GAAP, NOT the 34.1% non-GAAP margin Salesforce headlines: the gap is acquired-intangible amortization $1,687M (4.1%), stock-based compensation $3,480M (8.4%) and restructuring/acquisition costs $658M (1.6%), per the reconciliation in the 2026-09-16 Investor Day deck. All three stay in. The ~$2.6B of H1 FY2027 gains on strategic investments (Anthropic stake) and interest are below this line and excluded. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 GAAP operating margin 20.8% ($4,678M / $22,478M) vs 21.3% a year earlier; Q2 alone 20.5% vs 22.8% — the decline is Informatica amortization ($522M in Q2 vs $380M) and restructuring ($94M vs $4M). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 11% → 8% → 8% → 8% → 7% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.20 | Yahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.202, used as published (house rule). Not normalized: Salesforce's capital structure changed sharply in March 2026 ($25B of new notes funding a $25B accelerated buyback, debt from $14.4B to $39.3B), which in principle RAISES equity beta, and a 60-month regression barely sees it. So the published figure is if anything low, and using it is mildly generous. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $9-10/share. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Salesforce's last forecast year grows 7%, so the step down to 2.5% is a real fade assumption; 3.0% would add roughly $9/share; 2.0% would take off ~$8. Must remain < WACC (~10.1%). |
| Diluted shares | 821M | Salesforce Q2 FY2027 10-Q, Note 11 'Net Income Per Share' (accession 0001108524-26-000190, filed 2026-08-27): Q2 FY2027 weighted-average diluted shares 821M (basic 820M + 1M of employee awards); was 962M a year earlier — the $25B ASR delivered ~103M shares in March and Salesforce bought 11M more in the open market in Q1. TWO OFFSETTING DISTORTIONS, both flagged: (1) the remaining ~20% of the ASR has been PAID FOR but not yet delivered (settlement expected October 2026) — handled in net_debt, not here; (2) Q2's low share price (~$165-185) made 40M employee awards anti-dilutive; at today's price ~5M more would count, roughly what Q2 FY2026's 6M dilution suggests. Net, 821M is a fair figure. 10-Q cover: ~823M outstanding at 2026-08-20. |
| Market price | $214.94 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:55 UTC |
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