Is Honeywell International Inc. (operating as Honeywell Technologies) (HON) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $229.00, Honeywell International Inc. (operating as Honeywell Technologies) (HON) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $80.09 and $419.61 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Honeywell International Inc. (operating as Honeywell Technologies)'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 21.3% annual revenue growth for HON. Our base case instead compounds to about 2.8% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, HON's modeled DCF value ranges from about $73.85 to $168.60 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Honeywell International Inc. (operating as Honeywell Technologies) would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of HON's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind HON's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $19,945,000,000 | Honeywell 8-K filed 2026-06-29 (accession 0000773840-26-000084), Ex-99.3 unaudited pro forma statement of operations FY2025 + Ex-99.2 recast segment supplement: ⭐ THIS IS NOT THE 10-K TOP LINE, DELIBERATELY. The FY2025 10-K (accession 0000773840-26-000013) reports net sales of $37,442M, which already excludes Solstice Advanced Materials (spun 2025-10-30, discontinued ops from Q4 2025) but STILL INCLUDES Aerospace Technologies. Aerospace was spun on 2026-06-29 (8-K Item 2.01), so the company a HON share now represents is Honeywell Technologies alone. The 8-K's pro forma column removes $17,497M of Aerospace sales: $37,442M - $17,497M = $19,945M, which ties exactly to Ex-99.2's recast 'Total Net sales from continuing operations' (BA $7,367M + PA&T $6,437M + IA $6,111M + Quantinuum $30M). The figure STILL CONTAINS ~$2.0B of revenue that has since been sold — PSS (~$1.1B, sold to Brady, closed 2026-08-03) and WWS (~$935M per the Q1 2026 release, sold to AIP, closed July 2026) — and EXCLUDES Johnson Matthey's Catalyst Technologies (acquired 2026-07-17). Those portfolio moves are carried in the forecast growth path, not here. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 Honeywell Technologies segment sales were $10,000M (Q1 $4,818M + Q2 $5,182M), +2.0% on H1 2025's $9,753M, with Industrial Automation's 2025 PPE divestiture still dragging the reported comparison. |
| Base EBIT margin | 12.0% | Honeywell 2Q 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 filed 2026-07-23 (accession 0000773840-26-000120), reconciliation of operating income to segment profit, FY2025 Honeywell Technologies column: DERIVED FROM A REPORTED RECONCILIATION, and the derivation matters because Honeywell publishes two very different margins. GAAP operating income for Honeywell Technologies FY2025 was $1,171M = 5.9% of $19,915M segment sales — but that is after $1,038M of one-off impairments (goodwill $724M, assets held for sale $270M, indefinite-lived intangible $44M, all tied to the PSS/WWS sale) and $187M of Quantinuum losses (Quantinuum is no longer consolidated). Adding those back: $1,171M + $1,038M + $187M = $2,396M = 12.0%. Honeywell's headline 'segment margin' was 17.6% ($3,507M), which ALSO excludes stock comp ($153M), repositioning/other ($390M), pension service cost ($57M) and acquired-intangible amortization ($509M). This model keeps all four of those inside EBIT: they recur every year, and acquired-intangible amortization stands in for the acquisition treadmill (~$11.5B of deals since 2023, per the company). So 12.0% is the honest starting margin, not 17.6%. Reference only — the cash-flow math uses forecast.ebit_margin. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 0% → 1% → 4% → 4% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.05 | Assumption — normalized estimate (Yahoo 5Y-monthly beta 0.901 + automation peer betas via yfinance, 2026-10-03): NORMALIZED UP from the published 0.901 to 1.05 — CONSERVATIVE (raises WACC, lowers value). The published beta is a 5-year monthly regression of the old conglomerate: until 2025-10-30 it held Solstice and until 2026-06-29 it held Aerospace (roughly half of sales, with a defense and aftermarket base that damps market sensitivity). Barely three months of the regression describe the pure-play automation company a share now represents. The pure-play automation peers it now resembles carry higher published betas (yfinance, 2026-10-03): Emerson 1.23, Rockwell 1.52, Johnson Controls 1.30, Siemens 1.28, ABB 1.01, AMETEK 0.99 — median ~1.25. 1.05 sits between Honeywell's own history and the peer median, on the argument that the remaining business is still more services- and installed-base-heavy than Rockwell's. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $7-8/share; accepting the published 0.901 adds about $11.60/share. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Not generous for an automation business whose organic growth target is 4-6%, but this perimeter has averaged roughly zero organic growth over 2024-2025, so I see no case to go above the house rate. Must remain well below the ~9.3% WACC. |
| Diluted shares | 319M | Honeywell 2Q 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99 filed 2026-07-23 (accession 0000773840-26-000120): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 318.6M, already restated for the 1-for-2 reverse split effective 2026-06-29. 316.9M shares were outstanding at quarter end; the diluted count is used to carry SBC dilution. The FY2026 adjusted-EPS guidance assumes ~319M. Honeywell bought back $1.0B in Q1 2026 and none in Q2. |
| Market price | $229.00 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:48 UTC |
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