Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $378.05, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) trades 1205% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $28.96 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices TSLA overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -92.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values TSLA at about $20.92 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Tesla, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 14.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 85% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is unusually high — most of the answer comes from a single assumption about the far future, so treat this figure as low-confidence and lean on the multiples alongside it.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — TSLA would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 11.4% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TSLA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $18.44 to $24.70 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Tesla, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TSLA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind TSLA's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $94,827,000,000 | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-01-29) — Consolidated Statements of Operations and MD&A segment detail: Total revenues $94,827M: automotive $69,526M (sales $65,821M + regulatory credits $1,993M + leasing $1,712M), services and other $12,530M, energy generation and storage $12,771M — the three segments sum exactly to the consolidated line. FY2025 was Tesla's first reported revenue decline: -2.9% on FY2024's $97,690M (10-K comparative column), because automotive fell 10% while energy grew 27% and services 19%. |
| Base EBIT margin | 4.6% | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-01-29) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: Income from operations $4,355M / revenue $94,827M = 4.59%. The filed margin path into this trough: 12.1% (2021), 16.8% (2022), 9.2% (2023), 7.2% (2024), 4.6% (2025) — and it kept falling after the base year: the Q3 2026 10-Q reports operating income of $718M on $28,046M in the quarter (2.6%) and $2,057M on $78,669M for the nine months (2.6%). The compression is two-sided: auto gross margin after price cuts, and operating expenses that reached 16.4% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026 (R&D $7,078M + SG&A $5,830M on $78,669M) against 12.9% in FY2025 and 8.7% in 2022 — the Superintelligence (SI) program is being expensed through the P&L. The base-year margin is used only as the disclosed anchor; the forecast path starts from the 2026 trough, not from 4.59%. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 13% → 14% → 12% → 10% → 8% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker (most recently the 2026-10-06 batch), held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (4.96% on 2026-10-22); refreshing this one input at the next tracker-wide update would raise this value modestly — it is not refreshed for one company alone. |
| Beta | 1.89 | Assumption — Yahoo Finance TSLA quote (delayed) — published beta; own regressions of TSLA on the S&P 500 from Yahoo daily/weekly/monthly price history: Published beta 1.92 (5Y monthly, the figure the auto-model read on 2026-10-25). Measured here against the S&P 500 from Yahoo price history: 1.76 (5Y monthly), 1.59 (3Y monthly), 1.89 (2Y weekly), 1.89 (1Y weekly), 2.36 (2Y daily). The value used, 1.89, is the median of the five windows and confirms the published figure rather than overriding it. This is deliberately NOT the NVDA treatment: NVDA's published 1.99 (5Y monthly) described a company whose market cap had multiplied ~15x inside the measurement window, contradicted by every shorter window (0.81-1.26) — Tesla's windows all describe the same company, agree with each other, and the most recent ones are the highest: its 52-week range is $297.38-$498.83. A Blume-style shrink toward 1.6 was considered and rejected on the same evidence. At a beta of 1.0 the value would be $30.68 — the discount rate is not what stands between this model and the price. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker. |
| Diluted shares | 3,953M | Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-10-22) — Consolidated Balance Sheet at 2026-09-30 and cover page: Shares ISSUED and outstanding: 3,953M on the 2026-09-30 balance sheet ('Common stock, 3,953 shares issued and outstanding'), 3,952,757,946 on the cover page at 2026-10-15. THIS BREAKS THE HOUSE CONVENTION ON PURPOSE, and the reason is filed: the tracker's usual input is the weighted-average diluted count (3,541M for Q3 2026), but Tesla's EPS counts are not a share census. They exclude restricted stock awards 'until deemed earned' — including the 423M-share 2025 CEO Performance Award that has already been issued as restricted stock (balance-sheet note, Q3 10-Q) — and the ~304M shares issued in Q2 2026 when the reinstated 2018 CEO Performance Award's options were exercised enter the weighted count only from their issuance dates. The 412M-share gap between 3,953M and 3,541M is shares that legally exist today. Dividing the equity by shares that have already been issued is the conservative, census-true choice; what the other convention would print is stated in the caveats. (The FY2025 10-K's EPS reconciliation — basic 3,225M + 303M dilutive awards = diluted 3,528M — shows the same structure a year earlier.) |
| Market price | $378.05 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:27 UTC |
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