Is The Boeing Company (BA) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $172.38, The Boeing Company (BA) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $14.72 and $125.92 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts The Boeing Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 82% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — BA would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 8.2% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, BA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $39.78 to $122.01 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what The Boeing Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of BA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind BA's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $89,463,000,000 | Boeing FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-004357, filed 2026-01-30): us-gaap:Revenues, FY2025: $89,463M, +34.5% on FY2024's $66,517M — a recovery from the strike- and grounding-depressed 2024, not organic growth (600 commercial deliveries vs 348). Segments: BCA $41,494M, BDS $27,234M, BGS $20,923M, eliminations -$188M. BRIDGE EFFECTS, BOTH CLOSED IN Q4 2025: (1) the Digital Aviation Solutions (Jeppesen/ForeFlight) divestiture closed 2025-10-31 for $10.55B cash, so FY2025 carries ten months of that revenue and FY2026 carries none — a small headwind inside BGS (BGS H1 2026 still grew 4%); (2) the Spirit AeroSystems acquisition closed 2025-12-08 for $8,371M total consideration ($4,704M of it in 22.98M Boeing shares). Spirit adds little reported revenue because most of what it made was sold TO Boeing (the 10-K says its 2025 contribution was under 1% of revenue and pro forma figures are 'impracticable'); the CFO cited ~$130M of Q2 2026 sales. CROSS-CHECK: TTM revenue through 2026-06-30 is $93,995M (89,463 - H1'25 42,245 + H1'26 46,777); H1 2026 grew +10.7%. |
| Base EBIT margin | -6.0% | Boeing FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-004357, filed 2026-01-30): DERIVED, and the reported figure is unusable as-is. GAAP earnings from operations were $4,281M (4.8%), but that includes $9,672M of 'Gain on dispositions, net', of which $9,566M is the one-off gain on the Digital Aviation Solutions sale. Excluding it: $4,281M - $9,672M = -$5,391M / $89,463M = -6.03%. That loss in turn carries $5,283M of 777X and 767 reach-forward losses (777X alone $4,899M, booked Q3 2025); excluding those too the underlying business was roughly break-even (-0.1%). Reference figure only — the cash-flow math uses forecast.ebit_margin. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating margin was +1.3% ($604M on $46,777M, with only $79M of disposal gains), and Q2 2026 alone +0.6%. Boeing has not printed a full-year operating profit ex-gains since 2018 (11.9%: $11,987M on $101,127M, XBRL). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 9% → 10% → 10% → 7% → 5% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. |
| Beta | 1.21 | Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.213, used as-is. Not normalized: the 60-month window spans the 2024 door-plug grounding and strike and the 2025-26 recovery, so it already reflects a stressed, levered recovery story; a business at lowest-investment-grade leverage with a negative book-equity history (total equity was only $6,115M at 2026-06-30) earns an above-market beta. DIRECTION: each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $7/share; 1.0 gives ~$82. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. ARGUABLY LOW FOR BOEING IN 2030 SPECIFICALLY: the commercial backlog is 6,200+ airplanes (~$597B), roughly nine years of deliveries at 2030 rates, and management talks of 737 rates of 57-63 and 787 at 14 beyond the forecast window. A 3.0% rate adds ~$7/share — it does not close the gap. Must remain well below WACC of 10.0%. |
| Diluted shares | 827M | Boeing Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001628280-26-050038, filed 2026-07-28): 790.6M Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares PLUS 36.7M potential common shares the 10-Q says were EXCLUDED from diluted EPS only because Boeing had a net loss (antidilutive) — overwhelmingly the 5.75M shares of 6.00% Series A mandatory convertible preferred, which convert automatically around 2027-10-15 into 5.8280-6.9940 common shares each (33.5M-40.2M). Including them is the right treatment for a valuation: those holders get common stock regardless. Consequently the $5,750M liquidation preference is NOT also deducted as debt. The count is rising: 762.3M diluted in FY2025, 790.6M in Q2 2026 (Spirit stock consideration plus ~$1.7B/yr of 401(k) contributions paid in treasury shares). |
| Market price | $172.38 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 04:58 UTC |
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