Is Intel Corporation (INTC) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $59.37, Intel Corporation (INTC) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $18.35 and $85.35 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Intel Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — INTC would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 9.6% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, INTC's modeled DCF value ranges from about $8.55 to $16.08 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Intel Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of INTC's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind INTC's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $52,853,000,000 | Intel FY2025 10-K (accession 0000050863-26-000011, filed 2026-01-23); FY2025 earnings release 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000050863-26-000009): Net revenue for the fiscal year ended 2025-12-27, $52,853M, essentially flat on FY2024's $53,101M (-0.5%). Ties to us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax in EDGAR companyfacts. COMPARABILITY: Altera was deconsolidated on 2025-09-12 after Intel sold 51%, so FY2025 carries ~8.5 months of Altera and FY2026 carries none; Altera sat in 'All other', which fell 33% YoY in Q2 2026. UNCHANGED as the base; the step-up belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $29,705M, +16.4% on H1 2025's $25,526M, and Q2 alone was $16,128M, +25% YoY — Intel's 'strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years'. |
| Base EBIT margin | -4.2% | Intel Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 filed 2026-01-22 (accession 0000050863-26-000009): GAAP operating LOSS of $2,214M / $52,853M = -4.19%. Reported line, not derived. It includes $2,191M of restructuring and other charges (2025 Restructuring Plan) and $2,434M of SBC; ex-restructuring it was roughly flat at -0.04%. Intel's own non-GAAP operating margin was 5.5%. THIS IS A LOSS-MAKING BASE YEAR, so the model's peak-margin test reads off Year 1 (10.2%), not this figure. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: GAAP operating loss $1,340M on $29,705M, but that carries a $3.9B NON-CASH goodwill impairment on Mobileye booked in Q1; ex that charge H1 was +$2,560M (8.6%), and Q2 alone printed a GAAP operating margin of 11.1% ($1,796M on $16,128M) — the first double-digit GAAP quarter in years. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 19% → 12% → 8% → 6% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.42 | Assumption — normalized estimate; published Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 2.231 read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta is 2.231. NORMALIZED DOWN to 1.42 — GENEROUS (lowers the discount rate, raises the value: the published 2.231 gives $7.13/share, 1.42 gives $11.30). Evidence the published figure is one event: I regressed INTC monthly returns (yfinance, adjusted) on the S&P 500 myself. 60 months ending 2023-12: 1.00; ending 2024-12: 1.08; ending 2025-06: 1.15; ending 2025-12: 1.35; ending 2026-10: 2.35 (reproduces Yahoo's ~2.2). The jump is the stock tripling in one quarter (quarter-end closes $44.13 Mar-2026 → $139.63 Jun-2026). 1.42 is my 120-MONTH regression ending 2026-10, which includes the 2026 move without letting it dominate, and sits just above Intel's own pre-2026 range. It is below the 1.50-1.60 this tracker uses for the memory/AI-melt-up names because Intel's own history is lower, not by assumption. No beta in a sane range closes the gap: 1.00 gives $15.19. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Not obviously generous or stingy for Intel: its revenue is lower today than in 2018 ($70.8B) and its PC base is shrinking, but AI server demand and a foundry business with external customers could support above-GDP growth. 2.0% gives $10.76/share. Must remain < WACC of 11.82%; the terminal rate needed to reach today's price is ~11.0%, essentially the discount rate itself. |
| Diluted shares | 5,488M | Assumption — Intel Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000050863-26-000157) Note 4 + 8-K filed 2026-08-12 (accession 0001193125-26-346806) on the common-stock offering: POST-ISSUANCE, FULLY DILUTED, built from filed pieces: Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 5,104M (= basic, because of the loss; it already includes 71M of the 143M U.S.-government Escrowed Shares) + 242.1M sold on 2026-08-10 at $95 (210,526,315 + the fully exercised 31,578,947 option) + the other 72M Escrowed Shares not yet released (counted IN FULL — they are delivered as Intel draws Secure Enclave funding; if not released, half go to the DOC anyway) + 70M RSUs/options/other that Intel excluded as anti-dilutive only because of the loss = 5,488M. Because the escrowed shares are COUNTED HERE, the $15.6B 'Escrowed Shares derivative liability' on the balance sheet is NOT also deducted from net debt — that would be the same shares twice. NOT counted: the 241M DOC warrants at $20, exercisable only if Intel ceases to own at least 51% of its foundry business (Intel says they are 'neither currently nor expected to become exercisable'). Cross-check: yfinance reports 5,286.1M shares outstanding = the 10-Q cover's 5,044M (2026-07-17) + 242.1M. |
| Market price | $59.37 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:05 UTC |
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