Is Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $319.48, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) trades 68% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $190.49 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices AVGO overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -40.4% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values AVGO at about $176.96 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Broadcom Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 12.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — AVGO would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AVGO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $140.65 to $237.97 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Broadcom Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AVGO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind AVGO's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $63,887,000,000 | AVGO FY2025 10-K for the year ended 2025-11-02 (accession 0001730168-25-000121, filed 2025-12-18): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, fiscal year ended 2025-11-02: $63,887M, +24% on FY2024's $51,574M. Semiconductor solutions $36,858M, infrastructure software $27,029M. UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows this by forecast.revenue_growth, so FY2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: Q1-Q3 FY2026 revenue was already $71,089M, more than all of FY2025, and Q3 alone was $29,591M (+86% YoY). The base year is not representative of the business today; Year 1 carries the step-change. |
| Base EBIT margin | 39.9% | AVGO FY2025 10-K for the year ended 2025-11-02 (accession 0001730168-25-000121, filed 2025-12-18): GAAP operating income $25,484M / revenue $63,887M = 39.89%. This is AFTER $8,062M of acquisition-related intangible amortization (12.6% of revenue — $6,031M in cost of revenue, $2,031M in opex, overwhelmingly the VMware stack), $7,568M of stock-based compensation and $667M of restructuring. CROSS-CHECK: Q1-Q3 FY2026 GAAP operating income $35,306M / $71,089M = 49.7%; Q3 alone 53.9%. The jump is operating leverage on AI revenue plus amortization shrinking as a share of a much larger revenue base — not a change of method. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 66% → 50% → 35% → 12% → 5% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.46 | Yahoo Finance / yfinance published beta (5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.457, used AS PUBLISHED — no normalization. There is an argument for normalizing down (the 60-month window is dominated by the 2023-26 AI re-rating and its drawdowns) and one for normalizing up (top five end customers now ~55% of revenue per the 10-Q, and Broadcom's own risk factors call the AI upturn possibly unsustainable). Neither is strong enough to override the measured number. It is the biggest single lever in the file: beta 1.20 gives $206.35, 1.00 gives $235.98. Under these cash flows the price implies a beta of ~0.51. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. It is a hard step down from Year 5's 5%, and that step is where this model most disagrees with the market: the price implies terminal growth of ~7.9% under these cash flows. 3.0% adds ~$7.66/share. Must remain < WACC of 12.27%. |
| Diluted shares | 4,887M | AVGO Q3 FY2026 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-08-02 (accession 0001730168-26-000080, filed 2026-09-10): Q3 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 4,887M (Q1-Q3: 4,884M; FY2025: 4,853M). Diluted rather than the 4,774M outstanding because that is how this model carries SBC dilution. Buybacks of $8,450M in Q1-Q3 FY2026 (25M shares retired) roughly offset issuance — the count is flat, not falling. Broadcom's non-GAAP diluted count (4,937M) is higher still; not used. |
| Market price | $319.48 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:05 UTC |
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