Is The Walt Disney Company (DIS) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $119.12, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) trades 40% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $84.86 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices DIS overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -28.8% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values DIS at about $61.18 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts The Walt Disney Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 14.2% annual revenue growth for DIS. Our base case instead compounds to about 5.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, DIS's modeled DCF value ranges from about $41.43 to $99.95 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what The Walt Disney Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of DIS's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind DIS's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $94,425,000,000 | Disney FY2025 10-K (accession 0001744489-25-000155, filed 2025-11-13): Total revenues FY2025 $94,425M, +3% vs FY2024 $91,361M (the Q4 FY2025 release, same figures). The +3% understates the underlying rate: Star India was deconsolidated into the 37%-owned India joint venture on 2024-11-14, which the 10-K says took ~3 points off service-revenue growth. FY2025 is the latest COMPLETED fiscal year with a filed 10-K: FY2026 ended ~2026-10-03 and its 10-K is not due until mid/late November. UNCHANGED as the base; the forecast carries FY2026. CROSS-CHECK: 9M FY2026 revenue $76,397M, +6.2% on 9M FY2025's $71,961M; Q3 alone $25,248M (+7%) — Q3 FY2026 release. |
| Base EBIT margin | 14.6% | Disney Q4 FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001744489-25-000154, filed 2025-11-13) + Disney FY2025 10-K (accession 0001744489-25-000155, filed 2025-11-13): DERIVED — Disney reports no operating-income line and guides SEGMENT operating income, a non-GAAP figure. This model's EBIT is GAAP 'Revenues' less 'Costs and expenses': $94,425M - $80,593M = $13,832M = 14.65%. Reconciled to Disney's own bridge: total segment OI $17,551M - corporate and unallocated shared expenses $1,646M - amortization of TFCF and Hulu intangibles and film-cost step-up $1,576M - the $497M of equity-investee income that sits INSIDE segment OI (consolidated equity income $295M + the $202M India JV loss that Disney reports outside the segments) = $13,832M, ties exactly. So: corporate costs IN (they are real), TFCF/Hulu acquisition amortization IN (its non-cash nature is handled by the D&A add-back, see da_pct_revenue), equity-investee income OUT (those stakes are valued in the net-debt bridge instead), and the $819M of 'Restructuring and impairment charges' OUT — in FY2025 they were almost entirely write-downs of INVESTMENTS (A+E and Tata Play $635M, Star India $143M), not operating costs; severance recurs at ~$0.2B a year and is a small known omission that flatters EBIT by ~0.2pt. CROSS-CHECK on the same derivation: 9M FY2026 $76,397M - $63,973M = $12,424M = 16.26%, vs 15.60% for 9M FY2025. The base-year margin does not drive the forecast; it sets the peak the cyclical test compares against (peak = max(14.65%, Y1 16.3%) = 16.3%). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 8% → 4% → 5% → 4% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.27 | Assumption — yfinance published beta + own regressions, Blume-adjusted: NORMALIZED DOWN from the published 5Y-monthly 1.409 (yfinance, read 2026-10-03) to 1.27 with the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 x 1.409 + 0.33 = 1.274), the 'adjusted beta' Bloomberg publishes. This RAISES the value, so it is stated loudly. My own regressions of DIS against the S&P 500 on yfinance adjusted closes: 5Y monthly 1.42 (confirms the published figure), 3Y monthly 1.59, 10Y monthly 1.31, but 2Y weekly 1.01, 3Y weekly 0.97, 5Y weekly 1.08. The monthly windows are dominated by Disney-specific swings (the 2021-22 streaming boom and bust, two CEO successions) that weekly data average out. Blume sits between the monthly and weekly reads, so I neither take the high monthly number at face value nor the low weekly one. Published 1.409 → ~$55.22; 1.0 → ~$75.64. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $4-5/share. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Reasonable for Disney: parks pricing has compounded above inflation for decades, but linear TV is in structural decline. 3.0% adds ~$4.68/share; 2.0% takes ~$4.10 off. Must stay well below the ~10.13% WACC. |
| Diluted shares | 1,743M | Disney Q3 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001744489-26-000056, filed 2026-08-05) + Disney Q3 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001744489-26-000057, filed 2026-08-05) Note 9: Q3 FY2026 weighted-average DILUTED shares 1,743M (basic 1,738M + 5M award dilution). Down from 1,811M for FY2025 and 1,805M in Q3 FY2025: Disney repurchased 68M shares for $7.2B in 9M FY2026 and is 'now targeting at least $9 billion' for the year, using the ~$1.2B A+E proceeds. Cover-page count 1,726.7M outstanding at 2026-07-29, so the weighted Q3 figure is mildly CONSERVATIVE (buybacks continued after June); consistent with net debt, which is also struck at 2026-06-27. |
| Market price | $119.12 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 04:58 UTC |
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