Is Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) overvalued or undervalued?

At a recent price of $261.68, Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) trades 72% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $152.05 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices WSM overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -41.9% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values WSM at about $114.15 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Williams-Sonoma, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 66% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — WSM would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 4.8% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, WSM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $93.84 to $149.48 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Williams-Sonoma, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of WSM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.