Is Walmart Inc. (WMT) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $125.66, Walmart Inc. (WMT) trades 161% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $48.22 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices WMT overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -61.6% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values WMT at about $38.24 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Walmart Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 22.6% annual revenue growth for WMT. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, WMT's modeled DCF value ranges from about $24.60 to $74.76 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Walmart Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of WMT's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind WMT's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $713,163,000,000 | Walmart FY2026 10-K (accession 0000104169-26-000055, filed 2026-03-13), fiscal year ended 2026-01-31: Total revenues $713,163M (us-gaap:Revenues, FY2026) = net sales $706,413M + membership and other income $6,750M. +4.7% reported on FY2025's $680,985M (+5.1% constant currency, per the Q4 FY26 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 accession 0000104169-26-000032). Total revenues rather than net sales because the membership-fee and advertising lines are among the highest-margin revenue Walmart earns and they sit inside the operating income the margin is measured against. FY2026 was a 52-week year; FY2025 was 53 weeks for the comp calendar only. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 (six months to 2026-07-31) total revenues $365,688M, +6.6% reported and +5.5% constant currency on H1 FY2026's $343,011M (Q2 FY27 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 accession 0000104169-26-000145). Trailing twelve months to 2026-07-31: $735,840M. |
| Base EBIT margin | 4.2% | Walmart Q4/FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000104169-26-000032, filed 2026-02-19) + FY2026 10-K: GAAP operating income $29,825M / total revenues $713,163M = 4.18% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss, ties to the 10-K). It carries $1,157M of items management adjusts out: a $722M non-cash share-based-compensation charge at PhonePe (plan modification ahead of its planned IPO, no tax benefit), $285M of certain legal matters and $150M of business reorganization charges. Management's ADJUSTED operating income was $30,982M (4.34%) - that is the base FY2027 guidance grows from. History on the same GAAP tag: 5.6-6.1% FY2008-FY2015, a reset to ~4.0-4.3% from FY2017 as Walmart invested in wages, price and eCommerce, a 3.34% trough in FY2023 (inventory glut), then 4.17%, 4.31%, 4.18%. Because Year 1 (4.45%) sits ABOVE this figure, the cyclical peak-fade check compares against Year 1 and cannot fire. Operating leases: $2,434M of FY2026 operating lease cost stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating lease liabilities out of net debt. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 GAAP operating income $16,876M on $365,688M = 4.61% (H1 FY2026 4.20%) - but H1 includes ~$2.9B of IEEPA tariff refunds recorded as a reduction of cost of sales, most of which Walmart says it is reinvesting in price through the rest of the year. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 0.59 | Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.595, used AS IS - no normalization. It is low, and that is the company: Walmart is the archetypal defensive stock, selling groceries and consumables that ~280 million customers a week buy in any economy, and it has measured well below 1.0 for decades. The 2026 drawdown (from a $135.16 52-week high to ~$104) is company-specific (comp slowdown, price investment) rather than market beta, so there is no event in the window that argues for adjusting it either way. Note what a low beta does: it makes this model MORE generous than a market-beta discount rate would, and the gap to the price persists anyway (see caveats). Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $4/share (0.695 gives $34.55, 0.495 gives $42.62). |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For Walmart it is on the cautious side of its own history: revenue compounded ~3.2% a year from FY2008 ($377.0B) to FY2026 ($713.2B), ~4.6% a year since FY2021. 3.0% adds ~$3.85/share ($42.08); 2.0% takes ~$3.20 off ($35.04). Must remain < WACC of 7.96%. |
| Diluted shares | 7,978M | Walmart Q2 FY2027 10-Q (accession 0000104169-26-000154, filed 2026-08-28) Note 2 EPS: Q2 FY2027 (three months to 2026-07-31) weighted-average diluted shares 7,978M; H1 7,989M; FY2026 8,022M. Shares outstanding 7,933.7M at 2026-08-26. The count is FALLING ~0.5% a year: Walmart repurchased 42.3M shares ($5.1B) in H1 FY2027 under a $30B authorization announced in February 2026 ($25.1B remaining). Same post-2024-split basis as the price. |
| Market price | $125.66 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:49 UTC |
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