Is Visa Inc. (V) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $422.16, Visa Inc. (V) trades 65% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $255.10 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices V overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -39.6% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values V at about $278.73 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Visa Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 20.8% annual revenue growth for V. Our base case instead compounds to about 11.3% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, V's modeled DCF value ranges from about $197.09 to $483.33 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Visa Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of V's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind V's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $40,000,000,000 | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2025-11-06) — Consolidated Statements of Operations and MD&A net revenue components table: Net revenue $40,000M, as filed, by line: service revenue $17,539M + data processing revenue $19,993M + international transaction revenue $14,166M + other revenue $4,053M = $55,751M gross, less client incentives $15,751M (28.3% of gross revenue, recorded as contra-revenue exactly as filed) = $40,000M. The four lines sum exactly to the consolidated line. Growth into the base year: +11.3% on FY2024's $35,926M and +10.0% the year before that (FY2023: $32,653M) — a decade-stable toll on payment volume, not a spike year. |
| Base EBIT margin | 60.0% | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2025-11-06) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: Operating income $23,994M / net revenue $40,000M = 59.99%. The filed path: 64.3% (FY2023), 65.7% (FY2024), 60.0% (FY2025). FY2025's drop is one line: the litigation provision was $2,562M in FY2025 against $462M in FY2024 and $927M in FY2023 — excluding it, FY2025 operating margin is 66.4%, in line with the two prior years (67.2% and 67.0% on the same basis). The provision is a recurring feature of this business (interchange MDL and uncovered matters), lumpy in size, and Visa itself excludes it in its non-GAAP reconciliation — the forecast path below carries a normalized provision load rather than either extreme. The base-year margin is the disclosed anchor only; the forecast starts from the built FY2026 year, not from 59.99%. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 15% → 12% → 11% → 10% → 9% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker (most recently TSLA, 2026-10-26), held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (4.96% on 2026-10-22); refreshing this one input at the next tracker-wide update would raise this value to about $293.15 — it is not refreshed for one company alone. |
| Beta | 0.64 | Assumption — Own regressions of V on the S&P 500 from Yahoo daily/weekly/monthly price history (delayed): Measured here against the S&P 500 from Yahoo price history: 0.80 (5Y monthly), 0.44 (3Y monthly), 0.75 (2Y weekly), 0.45 (1Y weekly), 0.64 (2Y daily). The value used, 0.64, is the median of the five windows — the same method the TSLA model documents. The 5Y monthly window, which is the construction behind the published beta a quote page shows, prints 0.80: it still contains the 2021-22 rate shock, when Visa's shares de-rated with every long-duration asset. Every shorter window describes a lower-beta company, and all five describe the same one — a toll-booth whose volumes track nominal spending, not the cycle. No Blume shrink is applied in either direction. This input matters more here than in most models in this tracker: at the published-style 0.80 the value is $244.13, at the kindest measured window (0.44) it is $337.69, and the price itself would need a beta of about 0.28 — below every window measured. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $22 a share. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker. |
| Diluted shares | 1,880M | Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-07-29) — Note 11, Stockholders' Equity: as-converted share table at 2026-06-30: Shares outstanding ON AN AS-CONVERTED BASIS at 2026-06-30, in Visa's own presentation: Class A common stock 1,702M, plus Class B-1 (2M shares at a 1.5445 conversion rate) 3M, Class B-2 (under 1M shares at 1.5014) 1M, Class B-3 (61M shares at 1.4953) 91M, Class C (18M shares at 4.0000) 73M, and the three series of Visa Europe preferred stock on an as-converted basis 7M + 1M + 2M = 1,880M in total (1,930M at 2025-09-30). THIS IS THE CENSUS CHOICE, and it matters: the market price is for a Class A share, and every other class is a claim on Class A shares at the filed conversion rates, so the company's value must be divided by Class A-equivalent shares, not by Class A shares alone. The auto-model divided by ~1,704M (Class A only) — on that count this same model would print $307.52. The weighted-average diluted count Visa reports for EPS (1,916M for the nine months, which averages a year of buybacks and adds employee-plan equivalents) would print $273.50. The period-end census is used because those shares exist today; buybacks retired $16,430M of stock in the first nine months of FY2026 alone, and the census already reflects them. |
| Market price | $422.16 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:00 UTC |
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