Is Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $71.17, Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) trades 14% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $62.42 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices UBER overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -12.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values UBER at about $64.56 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Uber Technologies, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 12.3% annual revenue growth for UBER. Our base case instead compounds to about 11.6% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, UBER's modeled DCF value ranges from about $50.25 to $91.71 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Uber Technologies, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of UBER's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind UBER's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $52,017,000,000 | Uber FY2025 10-K (accession 0001543151-26-000015, filed 2026-02-13): us-gaap:Revenues FY2025 = $52,017M, +18.3% on FY2024's $43,978M (+18% constant currency), against Gross Bookings of $193,454M (+19%). UNCHANGED as the base; the new quarters belong in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $27,394M is +13.3% on H1 2025's $24,184M — but that growth rate is NOT comparable, because from 2026-01-02 Uber moved certain UK Mobility markets to an agency model and now records driver payments as a reduction of revenue. The 10-Q puts the H1 2026 revenue hit at $2.1B ($1.1B in Q2). Gross Bookings grew 25% in H1. See forecast.revenue_growth. |
| Base EBIT margin | 10.7% | Uber FY2025 10-K (accession 0001543151-26-000015, filed 2026-02-13) + Uber Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001543151-26-000011, filed 2026-02-04): GAAP income from operations $5,565M / revenue $52,017M = 10.70%. This is the OPERATING line, deliberately — Uber's GAAP net income ($10,053M) is useless for a DCF: it includes a $5.0B tax-valuation-allowance release and equity-stake revaluations, none of which is operating profit. Nothing is added back: the $564M of 'legal, non-income tax and regulatory reserve changes' (mostly driver-classification matters; $1,123M in FY2024) and $268M of acquired-intangible amortization that Uber excludes from its Non-GAAP Operating Income ($6,453M, 12.4%) STAY IN here, because they have recurred every year and are paid in cash. SBC ($1,826M, 3.5% of revenue) is also inside. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026: $3,813M / $27,394M = 13.92% (H1 2025: 11.07%). About one point of that lift is the UK reclassification shrinking the denominator rather than a better business; the rest is genuine operating leverage (Non-GAAP Operating Income +40% in Q2 on Gross Bookings +24%). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 10% → 15% → 13% → 11% → 9% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the house rate shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.16 | Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.159, read 2026-10-03. Used AS PUBLISHED — no normalization. It is plausible for a high-growth consumer platform with a cyclical, discretionary-spend tail, and the window (2021-2026) is post-IPO-lockup and post-pandemic, so it describes the current company. Cost of equity = 5.24% + 1.159 x 5.0% = 11.04%. SENSITIVITY: 1.0 lifts the value to ~$71; 1.3 lowers it to ~$60. The beta that exactly justifies today's price is ~1.07. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Arguably conservative for a platform still growing Gross Bookings ~20%: the jump from 9% growth in 2030 to 2.5% forever is abrupt, and a 3.0% terminal rate lifts the value to ~$68, essentially today's price. Must remain well below the 10.52% WACC; it does. |
| Diluted shares | 2,050M | Uber Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001543151-26-000027, filed 2026-08-05) + Uber Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001543151-26-000032, filed 2026-08-05): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 2,050,225K (H1 2026 2,060,763K; FY2025 2,119,689K). 2,042.56M were outstanding on 2026-07-31. The count is FALLING ~3.5% a year: $3,529M of buybacks in H1 2026 alone, with $15.7B of authorization left. The 2028 convertible (conversion price $72.54) is just out of the money at today's price and its $1,725M principal is in debt. |
| Market price | $71.17 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:49 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Technology stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive UBER valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.