Is Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $59.87, Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $40.48 and $170.12 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Tyson Foods, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 81% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TSN's modeled DCF value ranges from about $41.33 to $152.55 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Tyson Foods, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TSN's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind TSN's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $54,441,000,000 | Tyson Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000100493-25-000094, filed 2025-11-10); ties to FY2025 10-K (accession 0000100493-25-000095): FY2025 Sales $54,441M, +2.1% on FY2024's $53,309M (+3.3% excluding the $653M year-on-year increase in legal contingency accruals, which Tyson books as a REDUCTION TO SALES, not an expense). Segment gross sales: Beef $21,623M, Chicken $16,837M, Prepared Foods $9,930M, Pork $5,781M, International/Other $2,291M, less $2,021M intersegment. UNCHANGED as the base — FY2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: nine months of FY2026 (to 2026-06-27) sales were $41,834M, +3.1% YoY, consistent with the guided full year. |
| Base EBIT margin | 2.6% | Tyson Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000100493-25-000094, filed 2025-11-10): HOUSE MEASURE = GAAP operating income EXCLUDING ONLY non-cash goodwill/intangible impairments. FY2025 GAAP operating income $1,098M (2.02%) + the $343M non-cash goodwill impairment = $1,441M / $54,441M = 2.65%. Everything else Tyson strips out of its 'adjusted' figure is LEFT IN: the $698M of antitrust legal-contingency accruals (booked against sales) and restructuring/plant-closure charges are cash costs this company has incurred every year — adjusted-vs-GAAP gap was $411M in FY2024, $846M ex-impairment in FY2025, $517M in 9M FY2026. Tyson's own adjusted margin for FY2025 was 4.2% ($2,287M); this base deliberately sits below it. CROSS-CHECK: 9M FY2026 GAAP operating income $1,099M / $41,834M = 2.63% (no impairments at the operating line), essentially the same as this base. The base margin only feeds the cyclical-fade check; cash flows run off the forecast path. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 2% → 2% → 3% → 3% → 2% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model. |
| Beta | 0.75 | Assumption — normalized estimate (published 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.395 (yfinance 2026-10-05). NORMALIZED UP to 0.75 — CONSERVATIVE: it raises WACC and LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.395 the cost of equity is 7.2%, barely 1pp above the ~6.1% Tyson would pay on new BBB/Baa2 debt — equity junior to the bonds cannot plausibly be that cheap. Cross-check by bond-yield-plus-premium: ~6.1% plus the conventional 3-4pp equity premium gives 9.1-10.1%; beta 0.75 gives 8.99%, just under that range. A low market beta also says little about a company whose GAAP operating margin swung from 9.3% (FY2021) to -0.8% (FY2023) in two years. Sizing: the published 0.395 would give ~$100/share; 0.6 ~$81; 0.9 ~$61. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP). Consistent with Tyson's own history — FY2015-FY2025 sales grew ~2.8% a year (XBRL) — and with protein demand that grows with population plus food inflation. Must remain < WACC of 7.67%. At 2.0% the value falls ~$7/share. |
| Diluted shares | 355M | Tyson Q3 FY2026 10-Q, Note 9 Earnings Per Share (accession 0000100493-26-000058, filed 2026-08-03): Q3 FY2026 diluted weighted-average shares 355M = Class A 282M + Class B 70M (if-converted) + 3M dilutive awards. Outstanding at 2026-06-27: 281,792,507 Class A + 70,009,005 Class B. INCLUDES CLASS B: the unlisted Class B (held by the Tyson family) converts share-for-share into Class A, so every slice of equity is counted. Finance sites quoting ~282M shares and an $18.3B 'market cap' leave Class B out. |
| Market price | $59.87 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:25 UTC |
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