Is TE Connectivity plc (TEL) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $218.75, TE Connectivity plc (TEL) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $96.48 and $369.13 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts TE Connectivity plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — TEL would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 8.1% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, TEL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $83.81 to $165.34 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what TE Connectivity plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of TEL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind TEL's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $17,262,000,000 | TE Connectivity FY2025 10-K (fiscal year ended 2025-09-26; accession 0001104659-25-109150, filed 2025-11-10): Net sales $17,262M, us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 10-K (+8.9% reported, +6.4% organic). FY2025 is the latest COMPLETED year with a filed 10-K: FY2026 ended 2026-09-25 but its 10-K is not yet filed, so the year just ended is Year 1 of the forecast. Includes ~6 months of Richards Manufacturing (acquired 2025-04-01 for ~$2.3B; $179M of FY2025 sales). CROSS-CHECK: 9M FY2026 sales were $14,573M vs $12,513M a year earlier (+16.5%: 11.4% organic, 2.9% FX, 2.2% acquisitions), so TTM to 2026-06-26 is $19,322M — the business is already ~12% above this base. |
| Base EBIT margin | 18.6% | TE Connectivity FY2025 10-K (fiscal year ended 2025-09-26; accession 0001104659-25-109150, filed 2025-11-10): GAAP operating income $3,211M / $17,262M = 18.60%. Reference only — the cash-flow math uses forecast.ebit_margin. GAAP EBIT here is AFTER $190M of acquired-intangible amortization and restructuring/acquisition charges. CROSS-CHECK: 9M FY2026 GAAP operating margin 19.9% ($2,898M / $14,573M); Q3 alone 19.0% GAAP (after $83M restructuring) and 21.9% adjusted. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 15% → 9% → 7% → 6% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate shared by every researched model in this run. |
| Beta | 1.14 | Yahoo Finance / yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta: Published beta 1.14, used as published — not normalized. TE's mix (auto, industrial, AI hardware) is genuinely cyclical, so I see no stated reason to pull it toward 1.0. Each 0.1 of beta moves the value by roughly $8-9/share (see explainer); a beta of 1.0 would RAISE the value. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), well below the ~10.4% WACC. TE's long-run sales record (~3% CAGR FY2018-FY2025) gives no reason to go higher. |
| Diluted shares | 293M | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-085589, filed 2026-07-22): Weighted-average diluted shares for the quarter ended 2026-06-26: 293M (basic 291M); 295M for the nine months. Down from 298M a year earlier on continued buybacks ($2.0B returned to shareholders YTD). Shares outstanding per the quote feed are ~289.5M, which would add ~$1.80/share; the weighted diluted count is the house convention. |
| Market price | $218.75 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:49 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Technology stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive TEL valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.