Is Sanofi (SNY) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $48.12, Sanofi (SNY) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $38.68 and $105.85 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Sanofi's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 0.8%. About 76% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -2.2% annual revenue growth for SNY. Our base case instead compounds to about 5.2% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SNY's modeled DCF value ranges from about $39.43 to $94.02 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Sanofi would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SNY's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind SNY's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $48,961,000,000 | Sanofi FY2025 Form 20-F (accession 0001628280-26-008403, filed 2026-02-17) + Sanofi Q4/FY2025 results press release, 6-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001121404-26-000001, filed 2026-01-29): Net sales FY2025 EUR 43,626M (+6.2% reported, +9.9% at constant exchange rates) x 1.1223 = USD 48,961M. All EUR figures are converted at EUR 1 = USD 1.1223, the 5 Oct 2026 spot (yfinance EURUSD=X, read 2026-10-05 21:32 UTC); the same rate is used for every EUR input (revenue, net debt, FCF memo) so the model is one consistent USD translation of a EUR business. Net sales EXCLUDE 'other revenues' (EUR 3,090M, mainly VaxServe distribution of non-Sanofi vaccines, Opella products still sold by Sanofi, royalties), whose thin profit sits inside business operating income; margins below are expressed on net sales, consistently. Opella (consumer health) is NOT in this figure: it was deconsolidated on 2025-04-30 and is a discontinued operation. Mix: Dupixent EUR 15,714M (36%, 73% of it in the US), pharma launches EUR 3,911M, vaccines EUR 7,936M, everything else ~EUR 16.1B. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 net sales EUR 22,106M, +11.1% reported / +15.7% CER; TTM to June 2026 EUR 45,843M. |
| Base EBIT margin | 20.3% | Assumption — Sanofi Q4/FY2025 results press release, 6-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001121404-26-000001, filed 2026-01-29) + Sanofi FY2025 Form 20-F (accession 0001628280-26-008403, filed 2026-02-17): DERIVED, and the derivation is the point. Sanofi's 'business operating income' (BOI) FY2025 was EUR 12,149M = 27.85% of net sales. BOI is AFTER the Regeneron profit share on Dupixent (EUR 5,065M net in FY2025, booked in other operating expenses), after R&D (18.0%) and SG&A (21.9%), and includes the Vaxelis JV's share of profit and deducts minorities. It EXCLUDES amortisation and impairment of intangibles (EUR 1,776M + 2,241M), restructuring (EUR 1,138M), and — because IFRS capitalises in-licensed and acquired assets instead of expensing them — every euro Sanofi spends buying pipeline. Sanofi's growth is heavily bought (Blueprint EUR 7.5B and Vicebio EUR 1.0B in 2025, Inhibrx 2024, Dynavax EUR 1.6B in 2026, a USD 1B Regeneron upfront on 2026-10-01), so BOI alone overstates cash earnings. TREATMENT (same logic as this tracker's BMY model): charge a NORMALIZED 7.5% of revenue below BOI = 6.0% business development + 1.5% recurring restructuring. 27.85% - 7.5% = 20.35%. Basis in special_cases. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 BOI margin 28.3% (helped by a >EUR 200M Sarclisa provision reversal); TTM to June 2026 28.45%. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 9% → 6% → 5% → 4% → 2% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate shared by every researched model in this run. A USD rate is correct here because the model values the USD ADR in dollars. |
| Beta | 0.52 | Assumption — normalized estimate (Blume-adjusted published beta, cross-checked): Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.281 (yfinance, read 2026-10-05); my own 60-month regression of SNY on the S&P 500 gives 0.346. NORMALIZED UP to 0.52 with the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 x 0.281 + 0.33 = 0.518), the same method this tracker used for BMY (0.184 -> 0.45). CONSERVATIVE: raises WACC and LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.281 the cost of equity would be 6.6%, barely above the ~5.7% Sanofi would pay on new dollar debt — not credible for a company with ~45% of sales in one drug that loses US patent protection in 2031. Cross-checks agree: my 10-year monthly regression gives 0.463, and the 10-year regressions of NVS 0.49, GSK 0.53, AZN 0.38, MRK 0.30, PFE 0.53, NVO 0.59 have a median of ~0.51. The published 0.281 would give ~USD 67/ADR. |
| Terminal growth | 0.8% | Assumption — Sanofi FY2025 Form 20-F (accession 0001628280-26-008403, filed 2026-02-17) (Dupixent patent table) + estimate: BELOW THE 2.5% HOUSE DEFAULT, deliberately, and this is the single biggest judgement in the model. The forecast ends in 2030, the year BEFORE Dupixent's US compound patent expires (March 2031 with patent-term extension; EU September 2032, March 2033 with paediatric extension; Japan May 2034; later-filed patents pending to 2043-45 may delay biosimilars but are untested). In 2030 Dupixent is ~47% of modeled revenue, so a perpetuity grown at 2.5% from that peak would value the drug's protected years forever. SIZED, NOT GUESSED: I ran the model out explicitly to 2040 — US Dupixent eroding 15% (2031), 40%, 55%, 65%, 70% (biologic biosimilar curve, slower than a pill); ex-US 15% (2033), 35%, 50%, 60%; Dupixent earning a 32% BOI margin for Sanofi after the Regeneron share vs ~26% on the rest; the rest of Sanofi growing 4% a year (funded by the 6% BD charge); same 7.5% charge, tax, D&A, capex and working capital; 2.5% growth after 2040. Revenue troughs at ~EUR 46.6B in 2035 and is back to ~EUR 55B by 2040. Discounted at this WACC, that path is worth the same as a perpetuity at 0.8% from 2030 (0.5% if the rest grows 3%, 1.1% if 5%). At the house 2.5% the value would be ~USD 74; at 0% ~USD 50. Must remain < WACC of 7.11%. |
| Diluted shares | 2,411M | Sanofi 2026 half-year financial report, 6-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001628280-26-050803, filed 2026-07-30): ADR RATIO: each ADS represents one-half of one ordinary share (20-F Item 9/10), i.e. 2 ADRs = 1 share. Average number of shares used to compute diluted EPS for H1 2026 = 1,205.5M ordinary shares (1,200.4M basic + 5.1M restricted shares) x 2 = 2,411.0M ADS-equivalents. Q2-only basic average was 1,196.6M after the EUR 1B buyback completed in April 2026, so the H1 diluted count is slightly conservative. Ordinary shares outstanding 1,198.1M (yfinance). |
| Market price | $48.12 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:55 UTC |
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