Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $28.60, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $20.82 and $128.73 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 13.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 95% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is unusually high — most of the answer comes from a single assumption about the far future, so treat this figure as low-confidence and lean on the multiples alongside it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SMCI's modeled DCF value ranges from about $15.05 to $30.11 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Super Micro Computer, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SMCI's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind SMCI's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $39,063,100,000 | Super Micro Computer FY2026 10-K (accession 0001375365-26-000022, filed 2026-08-31): Net sales $39,063.1M, +77.8% on FY2025's $21,972.0M (FY2024 $14,989.2M). FILED ON TIME: fiscal year ends 2026-06-30, the 60-day large-accelerated-filer deadline fell on Saturday 2026-08-29, so Monday 2026-08-31 is the deadline day, and no NT 10-K appears in the EDGAR filing list. That matters for SMCI specifically — its FY2024 10-K was filed late, after EY resigned as auditor; BDO USA (appointed 2024-11-18) audited FY2026 and gave an unqualified opinion on the statements. The audited figure is IDENTICAL to the unaudited $39,063,072K in the 2026-08-11 earnings release (8-K Ex-99.1, accession 0001375365-26-000021), so nothing moved between the preliminary and final numbers. THE QUARTERS ARE VERY LUMPY: Q1 $5,017.8M, Q2 $12,682.5M, Q3 $10,243.0M, Q4 $11,119.8M (XBRL, 10-Qs and 10-K). One customer was 28.1% of FY2026 net sales. |
| Base EBIT margin | 7.1% | Super Micro Computer FY2026 10-K (accession 0001375365-26-000022, filed 2026-08-31): GAAP income from operations $2,770.5M / net sales $39,063.1M = 7.09%. Includes $412.1M of stock-based compensation (expensed, not added back) and excludes interest income ($186.9M, captured through cash in the net-debt bridge), interest expense ($194.6M) and $26.5M of other income (which includes $39.7M of data-centre sublease income — excluded because the lease liability is likewise kept out of net debt). THE ANNUAL FIGURE HIDES A STEEP INTRA-YEAR SHAPE: quarterly operating margin ran 3.6% (Q1), 3.7% (Q2), 6.1% (Q3) and 13.4% (Q4). Q4 was lifted by a 17.5% gross margin against 9.9% in Q3 and the company's own 8.2-8.4% Q4 guide, which management attributed to 'favorable customer and product mix' (preliminary update, 8-K 2026-07-21). History for context: FY2023 10.7%, FY2024 8.1%, FY2025 5.7%, FY2026 7.1%. Full-year gross margin fell to 10.8% from 11.1%, which the 10-K attributes to 'competitive pricing to gain market share'. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 75% → 15% → 10% → 6% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 2.00 | Yahoo Finance / yfinance 5Y-monthly beta, read 2026-10-03: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.996, used AS PUBLISHED — no normalization. Checked rather than assumed: my own regression of yfinance monthly returns against the S&P 500 gives 2.12 (60 months), 3.56 (36 months) and 1.73 (120 months); dropping the Aug-2024-Feb-2025 auditor-resignation months RAISES it to 2.26, so the figure is not an artefact of SMCI's company-specific crisis. Peers on the same method: Dell 1.41, HPE 1.44 (60 months). Other AI-hardware names in this tracker were normalized down to ~1.5-1.6 (AMD, MU, STX, WDC); doing the same here would be GENEROUS and would add ~$6/share (1.6 -> $26.85), still far below the price. I did not, because every window I measured says SMCI is a 1.7-3.5 beta stock: a 6-7%-margin business with one 28% customer and live federal investigations is genuinely more exposed to the AI-capex cycle than the platforms it assembles. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Well below the 13.30% WACC. 3.0% adds ~$1.19/share. |
| Diluted shares | 805M | Assumption — Super Micro Computer FY2026 10-K: cover page share count, Note 5 (EPS), Note 9 (convertible notes), Note 13 (mandatory convertible preferred); Q4 release (accession 0001375365-26-000021): BUILT, not copied, because the GAAP diluted count gets SMCI's two convertible instruments backwards for a valuation. Starting point Q4 FY2026 weighted diluted 705.0M (basic 613.5M). (1) REMOVE 73.8M if-converted shares for the convertible notes: GAAP counts them, but conversion prices are $55.20 (2030), $61.06 (2028) and $83.44 (2029) against a $43.69 price, so the economic claim is the $4,725M of principal, which IS in net debt — keeping both would charge the same holders twice. (2) ADD 43.5M to reflect the full June offering (52.27M shares issued June 10-18 were only ~10 days in the Q4 weighting; 656,965,384 shares were outstanding at 2026-07-31 vs 613.5M Q4 weighted basic). (3) ADD 130.7M shares for the 7.00% Series A MANDATORY convertible preferred, which GAAP leaves out of the diluted count (it is a two-class 'participating security'): 4,312,500 preferred shares convert by 2029-06-01 at between 30.3040 and 36.3640 common shares each; at any price above the $32.9989 threshold the minimum rate applies, so 4,312,500 x 30.3040 = 130.7M. It is mandatory — it becomes common stock — so it is counted as shares, with its remaining dividends carried in net debt. Result: 705.0 - 73.8 + 43.5 + 130.7 = 805.4M (equity awards held at Q4's 17.7M treasury-method figure). NOT INCLUDED: any shares sold since July under the $1.25B at-the-market program (sales permitted from July 2026; none sold by 2026-06-30) — the Q1 FY2027 10-Q will show it. If the notes are ALSO counted as shares (GAAP's way) the value falls to $19.07. |
| Market price | $28.60 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:50 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Technology stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive SMCI valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.