Is Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $118.58, Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) sits below every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $136.17 and $334.14 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Signet Jewelers Limited's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 68% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, SIG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $110.47 to $183.89 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Signet Jewelers Limited would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of SIG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind SIG's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $6,813,600,000 | Signet FY2026 10-K (accession 0000832988-26-000055, filed 2026-03-19): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax FY2026 = $6,813.6M, +1.6% on FY2025's $6,703.8M (same store sales +1.3%, AUR up ~7% while units fell). Context from the same XBRL tag: $6,137M FY2020 (pre-COVID), $5,227M FY2021, $7,826M FY2022 and $7,842M FY2023 (the post-COVID engagement and stimulus peak, plus the Diamonds Direct and Blue Nile acquisitions), $7,171M FY2024, $6,704M FY2025. Bridal is 49% of merchandise sales; ~27% of merchandise sales contained lab-grown diamonds (10-K risk factors). CROSS-CHECK, latest quarter: H1 FY2027 sales $3,081.7M vs $3,076.7M in H1 FY2026 (+0.2%); TTM to 2026-08-01 = $6,818.6M. |
| Base EBIT margin | 5.8% | Signet FY2026 10-K (accession 0000832988-26-000055, filed 2026-03-19): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss FY2026 $393.1M / $6,813.6M = 5.77% GAAP. It carries $91.3M of non-cash impairments (goodwill and trade names of the Digital brands, Blue Nile/James Allen, and Diamonds Direct), $26.5M of restructuring and $4.1M of divestiture losses; management's ADJUSTED operating income was $515.0M (7.6%). Adjusted-margin history read off the 10-K non-GAAP tables: FY2020 5.2% ($318.3M), FY2021 3.0% (COVID), FY2022 11.6% ($908.1M), FY2023 10.8% ($850.4M), FY2024 9.0% ($642.8M), FY2025 7.4% ($498.1M), FY2026 7.6%. This base figure is not forecast from — Year 1 starts from guidance — but it is the 'peak' the cyclical check compares against, and at 5.77% it sits BELOW every forecast year. Operating-lease rent ($396.3M operating lease cost in FY2026) stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leases being out of net debt. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 GAAP 4.0%, adjusted 6.0% (vs 5.1% in H1 FY2026) — H1 is the seasonally weak half; Q4 alone earned 14.0% adjusted in FY2026. |
| Forecast revenue growth | -0% → 2% → 2% → 2% → 2% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model. |
| Beta | 1.10 | Yahoo 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance (1.104): Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.104 (read 2026-10-05 via yfinance), used as published. My own regression on 59 monthly returns vs the S&P 500 gives 1.10 and 2Y weekly 1.02, so the monthly figure is not an outlier window. Arguments for higher, NOT taken: the 5Y daily beta is 1.46, and mall-based discretionary peers on the same feed publish 1.16-1.47 (Dillard's 1.16, AEO 1.26, Kohl's 1.35, Brilliant Earth 1.42, Macy's 1.47; Movado 0.90). A jeweler is about as discretionary as retail gets, so this is the input I'd most expect to be too LOW — it is the generous side. Cost of equity 10.74%. Beta 1.25 gives $125.90, 1.46 gives $114.10; the price is reached at ~1.72. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. A fair rate for a jeweler whose prices track gold and diamonds in nominal terms, but generous on volume: units are falling and the store base shrinks every year. 2.0% gives $131.00, 1.5% gives $126.39; the price is only reached at about -2.4% forever. Well below the 10.74% WACC. |
| Diluted shares | 39M | Signet Q2 FY2027 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000832988-26-000227, filed 2026-09-09): Q2 FY2027 weighted-average diluted shares, 39.3M (basic 39.0M). No convertible preferred remains — the Series A redeemable convertible preference shares were repurchased in FY2025 ($813.8M), so there is no conversion overhang; dilution is only equity awards (~0.3M). CONSERVATIVE: outstanding shares were 38.7M at 2026-08-01 and 38.3M at 2026-09-04, and a $125M ASR then delivered ~1.02M shares up front on 2026-09-11 (8-K, accession 0000832988-26-000231), so ~37.6M diluted shares remain. Netting the ~$158M spent after quarter-end against cash and using ~37.6M shares would give ~$138, about 1.5% more. Management guides a full-year weighted diluted count of ~38.8M. |
| Market price | $118.58 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:40 UTC |
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