Is Pentair plc (PNR) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $70.20, Pentair plc (PNR) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $56.78 and $102.19 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Pentair plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 72% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -0.1% annual revenue growth for PNR. Our base case instead compounds to about 2.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, PNR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $40.96 to $89.64 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Pentair plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of PNR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind PNR's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $4,176,000,000 | Pentair FY2025 10-K (accession 0000077360-26-000007, filed 2026-02-24): Net sales FY2025 $4,176.0M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax), +2.3% on FY2024's $4,082.8M; FY2023 was $4,104.5M, so the business has been essentially flat in dollars for three years. Calendar fiscal year. UNCHANGED as the base — the 2026 pool destock belongs in the forecast, not here. CROSS-CHECK, LATEST QUARTERS: H1 2026 net sales $1,969.3M vs $2,133.5M (-7.7%); Q2 alone $932.6M, -17.0% (Pool -42%, Flow +5%, Water Solutions -5%). TTM to 2026-06-30 = $4,011.8M. Reported numbers only; the pending Taco acquisition is NOT in this base (see special_cases). |
| Base EBIT margin | 20.5% | Pentair Q4 2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000077360-26-000003, filed 2026-02-03); ties to FY2025 10-K: GAAP operating income $857.5M / $4,176.0M = 20.53%. This is the GAAP line and it is charged with: restructuring $31.3M, transformation costs $40.8M, intangible amortization $58.1M, asset impairments/write-offs $49.1M, legal accruals $11.6M and deal costs $4.1M. Pentair's ADJUSTED return on sales was 25.2% ($1,053.5M), which adds all of those back. This model sits in between on purpose (see forecast.ebit_margin): amortization and a normal ~1% of revenue of recurring restructuring stay as real costs; the impairment, legal and deal items do not recur. The base-year figure matters to the engine only as the starting margin the downturn check compares against. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: GAAP operating income $376.5M / $1,969.3M = 19.1% (19.7% in H1 2025); Q2 alone 17.9% with $53.9M of restructuring+transformation and a ~$35M IEEPA tariff-refund benefit inside it. |
| Forecast revenue growth | -6% → 6% → 4% → 4% → 3% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate every researched model shares. |
| Beta | 1.03 | Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.031, used as-is (rounded). No normalization: Pentair's mix (pool equipment tied to housing and discretionary spend, plus steadier water treatment and flow) sits near the market, and 1.03 is consistent with that. The 2026 collapse is only ~6 of 60 monthly observations, so if anything the current figure understates today's risk; a beta of 1.2 would take roughly $6/share off. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Not generous for Pentair: replacement and repair is the majority of pool-equipment demand on a large installed base, and water treatment has a secular tailwind. But it is not conservative either against a company whose revenue was flat from 2023 to 2025. A 2.0% rate takes ~$3.5/share off. Must stay well below the ~9.6% WACC. |
| Diluted shares | 162M | Pentair Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000077360-26-000042); ties to the Q2 10-Q: Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 161.6M (H1 162.6M; FY2025 165.5M). The count is FALLING — Pentair bought back $348.2M of stock in H1 2026 (2.0M shares for $150M in Q2 alone) and has $650M of authorization left. The diluted weighted count is used rather than the ~159.6M outstanding because that is how this model carries SBC dilution; using 159.6M would add ~$0.7/share. |
| Market price | $70.20 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:39 UTC |
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