Is Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $169.20, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) trades 430% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $31.92 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $26.14) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices PLTR against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Palantir Technologies Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 13.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — PLTR would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, PLTR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $21.99 to $32.77 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Palantir Technologies Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of PLTR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind PLTR's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $4,475,446,000 | Palantir FY2025 10-K (accession 0001321655-26-000011, filed 2026-02-17): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $4,475,446K (PLTR tags no plain 'Revenues' line). +56.2% vs FY2024 $2,865.5M; ties to the $4.475B in the Q4 2025 release. Calendar fiscal year. UNCHANGED as the base — the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth, so 2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $3,568.0M, +89.0% on H1 2025's $1,887.6M (Q1 $1,632.6M +85%, Q2 $1,935.5M +93%); TTM through 2026-06-30 is $6,155.9M. Q2 split: Government $990.0M (+79%), Commercial $945.4M (+110%) per the 10-Q segment note. |
| Base EBIT margin | 31.6% | Palantir FY2025 10-K (accession 0001321655-26-000011, filed 2026-02-17): GAAP income from operations (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss) $1,414.0M / revenue $4,475.4M = 31.60%. THIS IS GAAP, NOT 'ADJUSTED': Palantir's headline 'adjusted income from operations' ($2,254.1M, 50%) adds back stock-based compensation ($684.0M) and employer payroll taxes on SBC ($156.1M). Neither is added back here — SBC is a real cost paid in shares. Interest income ($229.2M) and other income sit below this line and are deliberately excluded; the cash that earns them is in the net-cash bridge. CROSS-CHECK, LATEST QUARTER: Q2 2026 GAAP operating margin was 47.1% ($912.0M / $1,935.5M; adjusted 62%), H1 2026 46.7%, TTM 42.8% ($2,634.7M / $6,155.9M). The base year is far below where the business runs today — which is why Year 1 steps straight up to 46%. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 82% → 45% → 30% → 22% → 15% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.62 | Yahoo Finance / yfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.621 (yfinance, read 2026-10-03). Reproduced from yfinance monthly prices vs the S&P 500: 1.639 over 60 months, 1.650 over 36. NOT NORMALIZED. The one argument for lowering it is that the 24-month window measures 1.246 — the 2021-22 post-listing swings are a different, smaller company. I did not adopt it: one window is not a trend, and Palantir's 2026 path (-29% YTD by August, then +60% in a quarter) is not the behaviour of a low-beta stock. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $1.40/share here; 1.25 gives ~$31. Even a beta of ZERO gives only ~$102, so this input does not decide the gap. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Palantir this is the binding constraint, not a detail: Year 5 still grows 15%, so handing off to 2.5% forever is where most of the model's distance from the price comes from. The reverse DCF needs ~12.3% perpetual growth to reach the price. Must remain < WACC of 13.35%. |
| Diluted shares | 2,569M | Palantir Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001321655-26-000041, filed 2026-08-04): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 2,568,694K (H1 2,569,826K; FY2025 2,565,197K). Basic was 2,399,820K: the ~169M gap is in-the-money options, RSUs and SARs, and using the diluted count is how this model charges for them. Palantir has no meaningful buyback offsetting issuance, so the count drifts up — 2,297.9M (FY2023) -> 2,450.8M (FY2024) -> 2,565.2M (FY2025). |
| Market price | $169.20 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:02 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Technology stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive PLTR valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.