Is NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $256.42, NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $101.53 and $426.83 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 12.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 63% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — NXPI would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 7.0% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NXPI's modeled DCF value ranges from about $79.64 to $141.24 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what NXP Semiconductors N.V. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NXPI's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind NXPI's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $12,269,000,000 | NXP FY2025 10-K (accession 0001413447-26-000008, filed 2026-02-19); figures also in the Q4 2025 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001413447-26-000003): Consolidated revenue FY2025 $12,269M, -2.7% on FY2024's $12,614M. NXP reports in USD under US GAAP and files 10-K/10-Q despite being a Dutch N.V. CONTEXT THAT MATTERS: this is the BOTTOM of an auto/industrial inventory correction, not a peak — revenue was $13,205M in FY2022 and $13,276M in FY2023, then fell two years running as Tier-1 auto suppliers and distributors worked down excess chip inventory. UNCHANGED as the base; the recovery belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $6,677M (Q1 $3,181M + Q2 $3,496M) is +15.9% on H1 2025's $5,761M, and TTM to 2026-06-28 is $13,185M (Q3 25 $3,173M + Q4 25 $3,335M + H1 26). NB the MEMS sensors business (sold to STMicroelectronics, closed 2026-02-02) is in the FY2025 base and out of 2026; NXP does not disclose its revenue in these filings, so no pro-forma adjustment is made — it makes Year-1 growth look slightly LOWER than the continuing business's. |
| Base EBIT margin | 24.8% | NXP Q4 2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1, Tables 1 and 4 (accession 0001413447-26-000003, filed 2026-02-03): GAAP operating income $3,047M / revenue $12,269M = 24.83%. Includes $261M of restructuring (mostly Q4 2025, $177M, tied to the hybrid-manufacturing move to 300mm and fab consolidation), $151M of purchase-price amortization, $462M of share-based compensation and $143M of 'other incidentals'. Ex restructuring it is 27.0%; NXP's non-GAAP margin was 33.1%. Left as the GAAP line. History, GAAP: FY2022 28.8%, FY2023 27.6%, FY2024 27.1%, FY2025 24.8% — a trough-year print. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 GAAP operating income is $2,576M on $6,677M, but Q1 contains a $627M one-off gain on the MEMS sale; ex that gain H1 is $1,949M = 29.2% (Q1 27.6%, Q2 30.6%). The forecast EXCLUDES the gain. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 16% → 8% → 2% → 5% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10, US 10Y Treasury constant maturity: 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.81 | Yahoo/yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta, read 2026-10-06: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.811, used AS PUBLISHED — not normalized. My reproduction from yfinance monthly prices vs the S&P 500 (59 returns) gives 1.87; the last 36 months alone give 2.28; two years of weekly returns give 1.44. Peers on the same feed: ON 2.05, Infineon ADR 1.91, Microchip 1.76, STMicro 1.48, TI 1.34, ADI 1.23. There is no single event driving it — the window holds the 2022 drawdown, the 2024-25 auto correction and a 2026 swing from ~$193 (early April) to ~$340 and back to the low $240s — which is what a cyclical auto-chip equity does. Normalizing down would be a GENEROUS judgement without an event to point to. This is the largest lever in the model: beta 1.5 gives ~$123, beta 1.2 ~$149. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (~long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Fair for NXP: semiconductor content per vehicle and per factory keeps rising (radar, zonal/software-defined architectures, electrification, edge AI), but light-vehicle units grow slowly, and chips deflate per function. Well below the ~12.9% WACC. 3.0% adds ~$4.8/share. |
| Diluted shares | 254M | NXP Q2 2026 earnings release, Table 1 and Q3 guidance (accession 0001413447-26-000044): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 254.021M (basic 252.415M); NXP's Q3 2026 guidance also uses 254.0M. Was 254.3M for FY2025 and 257.8M for FY2024 — buybacks ($899M in FY2025, $206M in H1 2026, ~$1.4B left on the program) roughly offset equity-plan issuance. Diluted count is how this model carries SBC dilution. |
| Market price | $256.42 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:05 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Technology stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive NXPI valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.