Is Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $41.38, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) sits inside our range of estimates: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $36.26 and $61.33 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Novo Nordisk A/S's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 1.3% annual revenue growth for NVO. Our base case instead compounds to about 1.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, NVO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $24.24 to $69.38 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Novo Nordisk A/S would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of NVO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind NVO's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $46,011,000,000 | Novo Nordisk FY2025 financial report, 6-K (accession 0000353278-26-000006, filed 2026-02-03); FY2025 20-F (accession 0000353278-26-000012): ADJUSTED net sales, converted at ONE stated rate. Reported FY2025 net sales DKK 309,064M (ifrs-full:Revenue in the 20-F XBRL; +6% in DKK, +10% at CER). Less the DKK 2,649M non-recurring, non-cash 340B rebate-provision reversal booked in Q2 2025 ('In 2025, USD 400 million has been excluded') = DKK 306,415M — the exact base Novo's 2026 'adjusted sales growth' guidance is struck against, so the Year-1 guided growth applies to like-for-like numbers. Converted at USD 1 = DKK 6.65966 (Yahoo DKK=X, 2026-10-05 21:35 UTC — the same spot rate used for capex and net debt; Novo's 2025 average USD rate was close to this) = $46,011M. CURRENCY TREATMENT: Novo reports in DKK and the ADR trades in USD; every DKK figure in this file is translated at the single spot rate above, and growth is entered in DKK terms, so the model is a constant-currency DKK forecast expressed in today's dollars. It carries NO view on USD/DKK. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 adjusted sales DKK 148,551M, +2% at CER and -2% in DKK on H1 2025's adjusted DKK 152,295M (Q2 2026 6-K, Appendix 7). Reported H1 2026 sales of DKK 175,311M are NOT usable: they include a DKK 26,760M one-off, non-cash reversal of the 340B provision in Q1 2026. |
| Base EBIT margin | 40.8% | Novo Nordisk FY2025 financial report, 6-K (accession 0000353278-26-000006, filed 2026-02-03): Reported FY2025 operating profit DKK 127,658M (ifrs-full:ProfitLossFromOperatingActivities) less the DKK 2,649M 340B reversal = DKK 125,009M / adjusted sales DKK 306,415M = 40.80%. This is DEPRESSED by one-offs that I deliberately leave in: ~DKK 8,014M of 'major restructuring costs' from the September 2025 transformation (9,000 roles cut; 2.6pp of margin) and DKK 2,760M of intangible impairments. Ex-restructuring the 2025 margin was ~43.4%. Why leave them in: the base margin is only the jumping-off point; Year 1 is built from guidance struck against this same base (see forecast.ebit_margin), so the restructuring savings show up in 2026 rather than being double counted. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 adjusted operating margin 44.6% (DKK 66,247M on 148,551M), but Novo says R&D and promotional spend rise in H2, and the guidance implies an H2 margin near 36%. Amortisation of intangibles (DKK 6,529M in 2025, mostly the three ex-Catalent sites) stays expensed inside this EBIT — see da_pct_revenue. |
| Forecast revenue growth | -4% → -1% → 3% → 4% → 3% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide risk-free rate shared by every researched model in this run. A USD rate because we value the USD ADR. |
| Beta | 0.60 | Assumption — normalized estimate (published beta via yfinance): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.384 (yfinance, NVO and NOVO-B.CO alike). NORMALIZED UP to 0.60 — this LOWERS the value. Reason: the last five years of Novo's returns are dominated by a company-specific boom and bust (the GLP-1 run to a 52-week high of $64.16 and a fall to $35.12), which a regression against the market reads as LOW correlation, not low risk. Large-cap pharma betas cluster ~0.5-0.7; 0.60 is mid-band, set above the 0.45 used for BMY in this tracker because Novo is far more concentrated (GLP-1 franchises are most of sales) and is in an active price war. Each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$3/share: the published 0.384 gives ~$45.17; 0.70 gives ~$33.13. The market price is matched at ~0.56. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. FLAG — a real judgement here, not a formality: the US compound patent on semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) expires in 2032 (20-F), two years after the explicit forecast ends, and semaglutide is the bulk of sales. 2.5% forever assumes Novo replaces it (CagriSema and cagrilintide patents run to 2037; amycretin/zenagamtide behind them) the way big pharma usually does. The 37% terminal margin and 10% terminal capex carry some of that risk; the growth rate does not. 2.0% takes the value to ~$33.42, 1.5% to ~$31.03, 0% to ~$25.69. Must remain < WACC of 7.82%. |
| Diluted shares | 4,436M | Novo Nordisk H1 2026 financial report, 6-K (accession 0000353278-26-000023), Appendix 7 adjusted EPS table: Q2 2026 'average number of shares outstanding, including dilutive effect' 4,435.8M (H1 4,442.2M; FY2025 4,447.7M). ADR RATIO: 'Each ADR represents one deposited Novo Nordisk B share' (20-F Item 12D), so value per share = value per ADR. The count includes Novo Holdings' A shares, which carry 10x votes but identical economic rights. Shrinking: the DKK 15bn 2026 buyback had purchased 35.4M B shares for DKK 9.94bn by 25 Sep; post-June repurchases are not netted from cash, so using the higher Q2 average count is consistent. |
| Market price | $41.38 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:44 UTC |
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