Is MP Materials Corp. (MP) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $37.75, MP Materials Corp. (MP) trades 264% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $10.36 per share. For this company that blend leans on peer multiples: our discounted-cash-flow model holds margins flat and fades growth toward a long-run rate, which systematically understates a business growing this fast, so its figure (about $4.11) is shown as a reference beside the range rather than blended into it. Our estimate sits below the market — read that as a statement about how the market prices MP against comparable companies, not as a finding that it is overvalued on cash flow. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts MP Materials Corp.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 14.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 190% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is unusually high — most of the answer comes from a single assumption about the far future, so treat this figure as low-confidence and lean on the multiples alongside it.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — MP would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MP's modeled DCF value ranges from about $3.15 to $5.60 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what MP Materials Corp. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MP's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind MP's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $275,457,000 | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-26) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: MODEL TOP LINE = Revenue $224,441K PLUS Price protection agreement income $51,016K = $275,457K. The PPA line is filed INSIDE operating income (it is the second line of the statements of operations, above operating loss), so the operating business the engine values has two filed top lines and both are carried; every margin in this file is on this combined line, and the split is stated wherever it matters. The filed pieces: revenue $224,441K = Materials $160,369K (NdPr oxide and metal $115,131K; rare earth concentrate $41,992K; other $3,246K) + Magnetics magnetic precursor products $66,861K − intersegment eliminations; PPA income $51,016K arose in Q4 2025 alone, the PPA's first quarter (commenced 2025-10-01, Q3 2026 10-Q Note 3). Ex-PPA revenue grew −9.9% in FY2025 as concentrate sales to China ceased in July 2025 under the DoW agreements; the combined top line is the honest base because the PPA is a filed 10-year contract (through 2035-12-31), not a one-off gain. |
| Base EBIT margin | -54.2% | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-26) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: Filed operating loss −$149,374K on the combined top line of $275,457K = −54.22%. On revenue alone the filed margin is −66.5%. The loss is a ramp loss, not a steady state: it carries start-up costs, advanced projects, $89,267K of DD&A (including $11,434K of Q4 amortization of the PPA Upfront Asset) and $30,163K of stock compensation on a business whose separated-products plant was still ramping (NdPr Production Volume 2,599 MT in FY2025 vs designed throughput the filing says will take 'many quarters' to reach). The filed margin path into the forecast: FY2024 −83.1% (operating loss −$169,426K on revenue $203,855K, no PPA), FY2025 −54.2%, 9M 2026 −18.9% (operating loss −$78,209K on $414,756K). Segment colour (10-K MD&A): Materials Adjusted EBITDA +$16,818K in FY2025 (only positive because of the $51,016K of Q4 PPA income) and Magnetics +$26,449K. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 106% → 45% → 32% → 24% → 18% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker, held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (4.96% on 2026-10-22); refreshing it for MP alone would print a higher value (priced in the explainer) and break comparability — it is a tracker-wide update, flagged here rather than smuggled into one company's model. |
| Beta | 2.15 | Assumption — Yahoo Finance MP quote (delayed) — own regressions of MP on the S&P 500 from Yahoo daily/weekly/monthly price history: Median of five own measured windows against the S&P 500 (Yahoo price history, measured 2026-11-06): 2.15 (5Y monthly), 2.48 (3Y monthly), 1.10 (2Y weekly), 2.85 (1Y weekly), 1.46 (2Y daily) — median 2.15. The windows disagree violently (1.10–2.85), which is itself the filed reality of this stock: a 52-week range of $31.90–$76.80 around the $33.74 close used here, a July 2025 DoW re-rating, and a commodity price cycle inside the window. No shrink is applied (the APP/TSLA logic: the windows describe the same company, and the most recent window is the HIGHEST, not the lowest). Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $0.35 a share here; the window extremes are priced in the explainer (beta 1.10 and beta 2.85), and the price itself implies a beta of about ZERO on this model's cash flows (the solver prints ≈ −0.03; even a beta of exactly 0 prints $31.42, still below the price) — the market is discounting MP like a utility and pricing it like a growth stock at the same time, which is the gap in one line. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker. For a miner this deserves one sentence of defence: the filed reserve life is ~28 years at the ramped production rate and the PPA runs to 2035, so a 2.5% perpetual growth on the 2030 cash flow is a modelling convention about the post-2030 franchise (HREE, recycling, magnet share), not a claim that the Mountain Pass ore body grows. |
| Diluted shares | 192M | Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-11-06) — Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets, Note 12 (Redeemable Preferred Stock) and Note 16 (Warrant): As-converted census, to the share: common outstanding at 2026-09-30 of 178,234,989 (balance-sheet face; 15,249,782 treasury shares already excluded; cover count at 2026-10-30 was 178,267,976) PLUS the DoW's Series A preferred converted at its filed rate — 400,000 preferred shares issued July 2025 for $400.0M cash, convertible at the DoW's election at any time into 13,320,013 common shares at $30.03 — = 191,555,002 shares, carried as 191.555M. The preferred is counted in the CENSUS, not the bridge (the V precedent: an as-converted claim is a share count, and counting its $413,611K carrying value as debt as well would count it twice); the alternative (preferred as debt at its $435.6M filed liquidation floor, census 178.235M) is priced in the explainer. DELIBERATELY EXCLUDED, each priced or named: the DoW warrant for 11,201,659 shares at $30.03 to 2035 (in the money at the price used here; treasury-method adds ~1.52M shares — priced); the 2030 converts (conversion price $21.74, in the money; if-converted adds 39.686M shares and removes $848,263K of carrying debt — priced; the company's capped calls cover 34.4M of those shares to a $31.06 cap and are disclosure only, as in every house model); RSUs/PSUs (the filing's diluted EPS count equals basic at 178,311,733 for 9M 2026 because MP is loss-making and all such securities are anti-dilutive as filed). A common-only census (178.235M) is also priced in the explainer. |
| Market price | $37.75 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 04:57 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · All valued stocks · Interactive MP valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.