Is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $203.35, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $193.50 and $197.34 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 84% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MOH's modeled DCF value ranges from about $113.28 to $419.13 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Molina Healthcare, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MOH's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind MOH's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $45,426,000,000 | Molina Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001179929-26-000005, filed 2026-02-10): GAAP total revenue $45,426M = premium revenue $43,052M + premium tax revenue $1,863M + investment income $420M + other $91M (Q4 2025 Ex-99.1, accession 0001179929-26-000002). Molina, like UnitedHealth, reports investment income INSIDE revenue, so it stays in the operating forecast here — the regulated float that earns it is NOT counted as cash in the bridge (see net_debt). Premium tax revenue is a pass-through (an equal premium tax expense sits in operating costs); it is kept because management guides total revenue including it, and it only dilutes the margin percentage, not EBIT dollars. FY2025 grew 11.7% on FY2024's $40,650M on acquisitions (ConnectiCare), rate and new contracts. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 total revenue $21,670M, -4.0% on H1 2025's $22,574M (Q2 2026 Ex-99.1, accession 0001179929-26-000036) — membership fell from 5.75M to 4.93M year over year as Molina shrank Marketplace (690K to 283K) and lost Virginia Medicaid. |
| Base EBIT margin | 1.7% | Molina Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001179929-26-000005) + XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss history: EBIT = GAAP operating income $781M (= pretax $589M + interest $192M) / $45,426M = 1.72%. Includes investment income ($420M), all intangible amortization ($91M) and ~$1.04/share of acquisition-related costs. A collapse year: the medical care ratio rose to 91.7% from 89.1%, Q4 2025 was a $162M operating LOSS on ~$2.00/share of retroactive California Medicaid premium adjustments plus Medicare and Marketplace cost pressure (Q4 2025 Ex-99.1). HISTORY ON THE SAME BASIS (XBRL OperatingIncomeLoss / Revenues): 2019 6.2%, 2020 5.6%, 2021 3.7%, 2022 3.7% (real-estate impairment year), 2023 4.6%, 2024 4.2%. Management's own figure: adjusted pretax margin averaged ~4.5% 2018-2024 (Investor Day slide 19). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating income $228M / $21,670M = 1.05%, including a $93M MAPD intangible impairment (1.48% without it). |
| Forecast revenue growth | -2% → 10% → 7% → 6% → 5% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 0.78 | yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta (0.784), 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.784, used as published. It sits a little above the managed-care median on the same feed (ELV 0.711, UNH 0.615, HUM 0.744, CVS 0.596, CI 0.298, CNC 1.13), which fits a pure-play government insurer with thin margins and BB-rated debt. Not normalized. Cost of equity 5.24% + 0.784 × 5.0% = 9.16%. A beta of 1.0 would cost ~$36/share; the price is consistent with a beta of ~0.80 on this model's cash flows. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), identical to the UNH and ELV models. Medicaid and Medicare enrollment and spending grow with an ageing population, but state budgets and federal Medicaid reform cap what a government contractor can outgrow. 3.0% adds ~$24/share; the price is consistent with ~2.4% on this model's cash flows. Must remain < WACC of ~8.05%. |
| Diluted shares | 51M | Molina Healthcare Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001179929-26-000039, filed 2026-07-23): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 51.3M (H1 51.2M; FY2025 52.9M; 2026 guidance assumes 51.1M). The count fell from 57.7M in 2024 after $500M of 2025 buybacks; there were none in H1 2026 and $500M of authorization remains through 2026-12-31. NOTE: shares outstanding on the 10-Q cover were ~52.2M at 2026-07-17, ~0.9M above the weighted diluted count (vesting equity awards); using 52.2M would cut ~$3/share. |
| Market price | $203.35 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:54 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Healthcare stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive MOH valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.