Is Matson, Inc. (MATX) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $207.77, Matson, Inc. (MATX) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $102.52 and $439.04 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Matson, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 22.7% annual revenue growth for MATX. Our base case instead compounds to about 2.9% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, MATX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $82.18 to $138.51 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Matson, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of MATX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind MATX's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $3,344,500,000 | Matson 4Q/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-019116, filed 2026-02-24) + Matson FY2025 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-020944, filed 2026-02-27): Total operating revenue FY2025: Ocean Transportation $2,735.5M + Logistics $609.0M = $3,344.5M, -2.3% vs FY2024 $3,421.8M (China volume -9.5% on tariff disruption). Ties to us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax CY2025 in the XBRL companyfacts. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue was $1,727.2M, +7.1% on H1 2025 ($1,612.5M); Q2 alone +16.7% ($969.4M vs $830.5M). UNCHANGED as the base — the 2026 strength belongs in Year 1, not here. |
| Base EBIT margin | 14.9% | Matson 4Q/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-019116, filed 2026-02-24): GAAP operating income $499.8M / revenue $3,344.5M = 14.94%. Includes $32.5M of income from the SSAT terminal joint venture, which Matson reports inside operating income (it is a terminal operation integral to the ocean business), so the SSAT investment is NOT also added to the equity bridge. Excludes $31.7M interest income (captured instead through the net-cash bridge) and $9.1M of pension-related other income (non-cash). HISTORY MATTERS FOR THIS INPUT: operating margin was 5.9% (2019), 11.8% (2020), 30.3% (2021), 31.2% (2022), 11.1% (2023), 16.1% (2024), 14.9% (2025) — FY2025 is a mid-cycle-to-soft year (tariff-hit China lane), not a peak. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: $220.3M / $1,727.2M = 12.8% vs 12.1% in H1 2025; Matson's second and third quarters are seasonally strongest. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 10% → -3% → 3% → 3% → 2% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide rate shared by every researched model. |
| Beta | 1.30 | yfinance 5Y-monthly beta: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.301, used as the anchor UNCHANGED. Reasoned case for a lower figure exists — roughly half of operating income comes from Jones Act domestic lanes (Hawaii, Alaska, Guam) that behave like regulated utilities — but the stock's measured co-movement is driven by the China expedited service, and the 2021-23 boom-bust sits inside the window. Not normalized; flagged as a lever: beta 1.0 gives ~$122/share, 0.9 gives ~$131. Keeping 1.30 is the conservative direction (higher WACC, lower value). |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5%. Reasonable for Matson: the domestic lanes grow with island/Alaska population and prices roughly with inflation; China expedited volume is capacity-limited. Must stay below WACC (11.40%). 3.0% adds ~$4/share. |
| Diluted shares | 30M | Matson Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001104659-26-090003, filed 2026-08-04): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 30.3M (H1 30.5M; FY2025 32.2M). The count is FALLING fast — Matson bought back 2.7M shares in 2025 and 0.7M in H1 2026, with 3.4M authorized remaining through 2029 — so the forward per-share figure would be modestly higher if buybacks continue at fair prices. Not modelled. |
| Market price | $207.77 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 04:57 UTC |
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