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Is Gartner, Inc. (IT) overvalued or undervalued?

Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice

Fair value
$315.99
Market price
$191.02
Upside to fair value
+65.4%
Verdict
40% below fair value

Test the assumptions — move the discount rate

The DCF value below is a real engine result at each WACC (not a re-estimate). Drag to see how sensitive IT's DCF is to the discount rate.

Market price: $191.02

At a recent price of $191.02, Gartner, Inc. (IT) trades 40% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $315.99 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices IT undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +65.4% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values IT at about $209.71 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Gartner, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 0.3% annual revenue growth for IT. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.1% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, IT's modeled DCF value ranges from about $150.93 to $338.55 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Gartner, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of IT's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

The assumptions behind IT's DCF

InputValueSource
Base-year revenue$6,269,800,000Gartner FY2025 10-K (accession 0000749251-26-000112, filed 2026-02-12): FY2025 GAAP revenue $6,497.2M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax) LESS the 'Other' segment $227.4M, which is entirely Gartner Digital Markets (Capterra/GetApp/Software Advice) - held for sale at year-end and SOLD on 2026-02-05 for ~$110M (10-K Note 16 and Note 19). Both figures are read off the 10-K segment table; $6,269.8M is the same basis as Gartner's own non-GAAP 'Adjusted revenues'. WHY STRIP IT: the business that is being valued no longer owns Digital Markets, and leaving its revenue in the base would make FY2026 look like a revenue DECLINE (guided ~$6.375B vs $6,497M GAAP), which would mechanically flag a healthy subscription business as a cyclical. Ex-DM growth: FY2024 $5,970.8M -> FY2025 $6,269.8M = +5.0% (Insights +5.0%, Conferences +10.5%, Consulting -1.1%). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue ex-DM $3,167.6M vs H1 2025 ex-DM $3,098.4M = +2.2% (10-Q segment table).
Base EBIT margin18.2%Assumption — Gartner FY2025 10-K (accession 0000749251-26-000112, filed 2026-02-12) + Gartner Q1 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000749251-26-000165, filed 2026-05-05) and Gartner Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0000749251-26-000243, filed 2026-08-04) (divested-operation EBITDA): DERIVED, mostly from filed lines. FY2025 GAAP operating income $1,025.7M (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss) + the $150.0M Digital Markets goodwill impairment (a one-off on a business since sold) = $1,175.7M, LESS an ESTIMATED ~$36M for Digital Markets' own profit: Gartner disclosed its divested-operation adjusted EBITDA as $11M (Q1 2025) and $6M (Q2 2025), i.e. 52% of DM's H1 2025 gross contribution of $32.5M; 52% of DM's full-year gross contribution of $68.8M (10-K Note 16) gives ~$36M. Result $1,139.7M / $6,269.8M = 18.18%. Removing DM's adjusted EBITDA rather than its (smaller) EBIT errs LOW. $74M of FY2025 workforce-reduction and other 'non-recurring' costs (1.2pt of margin) are deliberately LEFT IN: Gartner booked them in 2024 ($30M) and 2025 too. CROSS-CHECKS: H1 2026 GAAP operating income $694.6M less the $5.4M sale gain = $689.2M on $3,187.0M = 21.6% (H1 2025: 18.8%) - but H1 is Gartner's seasonally strong half (Q3 2025 ran ~15.5% ex-impairment), so the full-year comparison is the forecast's Year 1, not H1.
Forecast revenue growth2% → 2% → 4% → 4% → 4%Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rate5.2%US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker.
Beta0.98Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.978, used as published (rounded to 0.98), no normalization. Arguments cut both ways: the 2025-26 collapse (~$540 in Jan 2025 to a $124 52-week low, then a ~31% August rally) is idiosyncratic AI-substitution risk that a market beta does not capture and that the 60 monthly points barely register (argues higher); a subscription book with ~97-99% wallet retention is less cyclical than the market (argues lower). Each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$13-15/share; a beta of ~1.17 alone closes the gap to today's price.
Terminal growth2.5%Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Reasonable for a business that compounded revenue ~8% a year for a decade but is now growing ~1.5% with an open question about whether AI shrinks the paid-research market; it is ABOVE the 1.5% the market price implies (see what_market_believes). 2.0% takes ~$13/share off; 3.0% adds ~$15. Well below the ~9.15% WACC.
Diluted shares67MGartner Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000749251-26-000245, filed 2026-08-04): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 66,581K (H1 2026 68,288K; FY2025 75,605K; Q2 2025 77,359K) - down 14% in a year on $2.0B of buybacks in 2025 and $1.08B in H1 2026 (6.94M shares at an average $153.49). THIS IS CONSERVATIVE: the CFO said Gartner 'exited Q2 with about 64 million fully diluted shares', and the cash for those Q2 repurchases has already left the June 30 balance sheet used for net debt, so the weighted count charges part of the buyback twice. Using 64.0M would give ~$218/share instead. No credit is given for future buybacks (~$1.2B authorization outstanding).
Market price$191.02Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:04 UTC

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TickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.