Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $504.89, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $293.21 and $1,152 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.9% annual revenue growth for HCA. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, HCA's modeled DCF value ranges from about $144.00 to $641.92 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what HCA Healthcare, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of HCA's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind HCA's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $75,600,000,000 | HCA Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-044769, filed 2026-02-10): Revenues $75,600M for FY2025, +7.1% on FY2024's $70,603M (FY2023 $64,968M). UNCHANGED as the base; 2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $39,339M, +6.5% on H1 2025's $36,926M, BUT Q2 2026 includes ~$980M of Florida state-directed-payment revenue that relates to periods BEFORE 2026 (Oct 2024-Dec 2025), booked when CMS approved the program in the quarter (2Q release). Ex that catch-up H1 was +3.9%. TTM through 2026-06-30: $78,013M. Context: revenue from Medicaid supplemental and state-directed payment (SDP) programs was ~$6.2B in FY2025 (8.2% of revenue), up from $5.5B in 2024 and $4.4B in 2023 (10-K) - the line the 2025 Federal Budget Act starts phasing down from 2028. |
| Base EBIT margin | 15.9% | HCA Healthcare FY2025 10-K (accession 0001193125-26-044769, filed 2026-02-10): Operating EBIT = income before taxes $9,832M + interest expense $2,248M + gains on sales of facilities (-$37M) = $12,043M; / $75,600M = 15.93%. Equals management's Adjusted EBITDA ($15,566M = $12,043M + D&A $3,523M) less D&A. FY2025 is the PEAK of the recent run: FY2024 14.97% ($10,570M), FY2023 14.85% ($9,649M) - 2025 was lifted by growing SDP revenue and exchange enrollment at its high. TWO THINGS THIS LINE CONTAINS: (1) 100% of the operating profit of the hospital partnerships HCA consolidates - the partners' share comes out below the line as net income attributable to noncontrolling interests ($998M in FY2025), which is why the bridge deducts them (see market.net_debt); (2) equity in earnings of affiliates ($78M), so equity-method stakes are valued here, not again in the bridge. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 EBIT = $4,781M + $1,183M - $9M = $5,955M, 15.1% of revenue, flattered by the ~$423M prior-period Florida benefit; ex that ~14.2% on ex-catch-up revenue. Base margin does not drive value: the forecast starts from Year 1. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.11 | yfinance published beta (5Y monthly), read 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.11, used AS PUBLISHED. Cost of equity 5.24% + 1.11 x 5.0% = 10.79%, ~4.5 points above HCA's ~6.3% marginal cost of debt - a sensible premium for equity under ~$50B of debt, so there is no case to normalize UP. A bottom-up beta would be LOWER: Damodaran's Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities unlevered beta 0.56 (January 2026, the figure the DVA model uses) relevered at HCA's market debt/equity of 0.53 and 23.5% tax = 0.79, which would give $407.09. Not used: the published figure reflects HCA's actual policy and payer-mix exposure (2026 showed both), and a 0.79 would assume them away. This is the single biggest lever on the value; each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$35/share. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For HCA it is arguably modest - admissions grow ~2% a year in its Sun Belt markets and pricing adds more - but Medicaid funding is structurally shrinking under the FBA and the commercial mix is under pressure, so 2.5% is not unreasonable. 3.0% gives $332.40; 2.0% gives $259.87. Must remain < WACC of 8.70%. |
| Diluted shares | 223M | HCA Healthcare 2Q 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001193125-26-315151, filed 2026-07-24); HCA Healthcare Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-321077, filed 2026-07-28): Q2 2026 weighted-average shares used in diluted EPS: 222.828M. The count falls fast - FY2024 261.8M, FY2025 239.5M, Q2 2026 222.8M - because HCA spent $10.1B on buybacks in FY2025 and $3.6B in H1 2026 (4.752M shares for $2,064M in Q2 alone), with $7.21B of authorization left at 2026-06-30. Shares OUTSTANDING were already 216.5M at 2026-07-24, and the 2026 guidance assumes 219.5M diluted for the full year. Using ~216.5M would lift the value to $301.78. The 10-Q weighted diluted count is used per house method - mildly conservative; it will step down at Q3. |
| Market price | $504.89 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:38 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Healthcare stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive HCA valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.