Is GSK plc (GSK) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $51.54, GSK plc (GSK) sits below every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $53.06 and $95.63 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples and our researched mid-cycle DCF): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts GSK plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.3%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly -0.9% annual revenue growth for GSK. Our base case instead compounds to about 1.2% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in slower growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, GSK's modeled DCF value ranges from about $30.32 to $125.40 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what GSK plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of GSK's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind GSK's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $43,261,000,000 | GSK Q4/FY2025 results announcement, 6-K (accession 0001654954-26-000892, filed 2026-02-04) + GSK FY2025 Annual Report on Form 20-F (accession 0001131399-26-000004, filed 2026-03-06): Turnover FY2025 GBP 32,667M (+4% AER, +7% CER) x 1.3243 = USD 43,261M. ALL GBP figures are converted at GBP 1 = USD 1.3243, the 5 Oct 2026 close (yfinance GBPUSD=X, read 2026-10-06); the same rate is used for every GBP input (revenue, FCF memo, net debt, debt weight) so the model is one consistent USD translation of a sterling-reporting business. GSK's own 2026-31 outlooks use 2025 average rates (USD 1.31), within 1% of this rate. Mix FY2025 (GBP M): HIV 7,700 (of which the dolutegravir franchise Dovato 2,678 + Tivicay 1,323 + Triumeq 991 + Juluca 656 = 5,648, 17% of group sales; long-acting Cabenuva 1,402 + Apretude 439); other Specialty (Respiratory/Immunology/Inflammation 3.8B, Oncology 2.0B); Vaccines 9.2B (Shingrix 3,558); General Medicines 10.0B (Trelegy 2,986). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 turnover GBP 16,038M (+3% AER, +5% CER); Q2 GBP 8,409M (+5%/+5%); TTM to June 2026 ~GBP 33.1B. |
| Base EBIT margin | 19.8% | Assumption — GSK Q4/FY2025 results announcement, 6-K (accession 0001654954-26-000892, filed 2026-02-04) + GSK FY2025 Annual Report on Form 20-F (accession 0001131399-26-000004, filed 2026-03-06): DERIVED; the deductions are the point (same method as this tracker's SNY and PFE models). GSK's Core operating profit FY2025 was GBP 9,783M = 29.95% of turnover. Core EXCLUDES amortisation and impairment of acquired intangibles, Major restructuring, contingent-consideration (CCL) remeasurements, significant legal charges (Zantac) and transaction items. Two further claims sit outside it and are taken off here: (1) MINORITIES - Core OP is before the share of ViiV Healthcare earnings that belongs to minority holders (Pfizer 11.7% + Shionogi 10% until Q1 2026; Shionogi 21.7% since). Core profit attributable to non-controlling interests was GBP 712M after tax, grossed up at the 17.1% core tax rate = GBP 859M = 2.63% of turnover. (2) BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND RESTRUCTURING - IFRS capitalises acquired and in-licensed assets, so Core OP carries none of what GSK pays to replace expiring drugs; a NORMALIZED 7.5% of revenue is charged = 6.0% BD + 1.5% restructuring (basis in special_cases). 29.95% - 2.63% - 7.5% = 19.82%. The Shionogi CCL cash payments (GBP 1,277M in 2025) are NOT in Core OP; they are carried as debt at fair value in net_debt instead, so they are not deducted here as well. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 Core margin 34.0% (H1 is seasonally strong; FY2025 H1 was ~33%, FY 29.9%); TTM to June 2026 ~30.5%. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 3% → 4% → 1% → -2% → 0% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate shared by every researched model in this run. A USD rate is correct here because the model values the USD ADR in dollars. |
| Beta | 0.52 | Assumption — normalized estimate (Blume-adjusted published beta, cross-checked): Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.28 (yfinance, read 2026-10-06); my own 60-month regression of GSK ADR monthly total returns on the S&P 500 (Nov-2021 to Oct-2026) gives 0.324, so it is not a data error. NORMALIZED UP to 0.52 with the standard Blume adjustment (0.67 x 0.28 + 0.33 = 0.518), the same method and result this tracker used for SNY (0.281 -> 0.52) and PFE (0.276 -> 0.52), and for BMY (0.184 -> 0.45). CONSERVATIVE: raises WACC and LOWERS the value. Reason: at 0.28 GSK's cost of equity would be 6.6%, barely above the ~6.0% it pays on new 10-year dollar bonds - not credible for a company losing its biggest franchise in 2028-29. Cross-check: my 120-month regression gives 0.52. The published 0.28 would give ~USD 69 per ADR. |
| Terminal growth | 2.3% | Assumption — GSK FY2025 Annual Report on Form 20-F (accession 0001131399-26-000004, filed 2026-03-06) (patent expiry table) + estimate: SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 2.5% HOUSE DEFAULT, sized rather than guessed (method as in this tracker's SNY model). Unlike Sanofi, GSK's big cliff (dolutegravir, US 2028 / EU 2029) falls INSIDE the forecast, so 2030 is near the trough. But erosion continues after 2030: dolutegravir's GBP 1.65B tail, Trelegy's GBP 1.75B, and cabotegravir (Cabenuva/Apretude) whose US NME patent expires in 2031 (later patents to 2038 in the EU; long-acting injectables are hard to copy). I ran the model out to 2040: dolutegravir to ~GBP 0.3B, Trelegy to ~GBP 0.6B, cabotegravir losing ~half its sales by 2037, everything else growing 4% a year (funded by the 6% BD charge), same margins and capital intensity, then 2.5% after 2040. Discounted at this WACC that path is worth the same as a perpetuity of 2.3% from 2030 (2.0% if the rest grows 3%, 2.6% if 5%). GSK itself guides to 'accelerating growth from 2031 onwards'. At the house 2.5% the value would be ~USD 55.6; at 1.5% ~USD 44.6. Must remain < WACC of 7.07%. |
| Diluted shares | 2,031M | GSK Q2 2026 results announcement, 6-K (accession 0001654954-26-006949, filed 2026-07-28): ADR RATIO: 'Each ADS represents two Ordinary Shares' (FY2025 20-F), i.e. 1 ADR = 2 shares. Weighted-average diluted shares Q2 2026 = 4,062M ordinary (4,014M basic + 48M share options and awards) / 2 = 2,031.0M ADS-equivalents. The GBP 2B buyback completed in June 2026 and no new programme has been announced, so the Q2 count is close to current (4,007M shares in issue excluding treasury per yfinance). |
| Market price | $51.54 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:05 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Healthcare stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive GSK valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.