Is Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $418.25, Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) trades 18% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $509.34 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices ELV undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +21.8% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ELV at about $501.28 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Elevance Health, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.8%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 80% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ELV's modeled DCF value ranges from about $306.73 to $1,043 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Elevance Health, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ELV's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind ELV's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $199,778,000,000 | Elevance Health FY2025 10-K (accession 0001156039-26-000013, filed 2026-02-06): DEFINED AS TOTAL OPERATING REVENUE $197,584M + NET INVESTMENT INCOME $2,194M = $199,778M. Elevance (unlike UnitedHealth) reports investment income outside 'operating revenue'; it is added back here so this model treats it exactly as the UNH model does — investment income on the regulated float stays in the operating forecast because the float itself is NOT counted as cash in the bridge. Net losses on financial instruments (-$653M) and the 2024 gain on sale of a business are excluded as non-operating marks. GAAP total revenues were $199,125M (us-gaap:Revenues). Operating revenue grew 12.8% on FY2024's $175,204M, driven by premium rate increases, acquisitions and Medicare Advantage growth (10-K MD&A) — that growth has stopped in 2026. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating revenue $99,320M + net investment income $1,469M = $100,789M, +1.5% on H1 2025's $99,262M (Q2 2026 Ex-99.1, accession 0001156039-26-000058), while medical membership fell 1.5% year over year to 44.9M. |
| Base EBIT margin | 4.4% | Elevance Health FY2025 10-K (accession 0001156039-26-000013, filed 2026-02-06): EBIT = reportable-segment operating gain $7,199M (Health Benefits $4,158M + CarelonRx $2,418M + Carelon Services $960M + Corporate & Other -$337M) + net investment income $2,194M - amortization of other intangible assets $628M = $8,765M; equivalently income before tax $6,710M + interest $1,402M + net losses on financial instruments $653M = $8,765M. / $199,778M = 4.39%. GAAP basis: it includes ~$0.3B of transaction, integration and litigation items (adjusted operating gain was $7.5B). Intangible amortization is kept as an expense (see D&A note). HISTORY ON THE SAME BASIS: 2023 5.49% ($9,439M / $172,034M), 2024 5.27% ($9,333M / $177,255M, excluding the $201M business-sale gain); 2019-2022, approximated as (pretax + interest) / total revenues, 5.4%-6.5%. 2025's fall is medical cost: the benefit expense ratio rose to 90.0% from 88.5% (Q4 2025 Ex-99.1), with Q4 at 93.5% on ACA morbidity and Part D seasonality. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 EBIT $4,241M + $721M + $134M = $5,096M / $100,789M = 5.06% (H1 2025: 6.42%) — but H1 2026 carries the $935M CMS accrual, and the first half is the strong half; see the Year-1 note. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 0% → 3% → 4% → 5% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 0.71 | yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta (0.711), 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.711, used as published. It is also the managed-care peer median on the same feed today (UNH 0.615, HUM 0.744, MOH 0.784, CVS 0.596, CI 0.298, CNC 1.13; median with ELV 0.711), so no normalization is needed. Cost of equity 5.24% + 0.71 × 5.0% = 8.79%. A beta of 0.80 would cost ~$38/share. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability and identical to the UNH model. Arguably conservative for a business whose revenue is a share of US health spending (3.0% adds ~$56/share), but the same government and employer pricing pressure that caps margins caps how far an insurer can outgrow the economy. Must remain < WACC of ~7.78%. |
| Diluted shares | 218M | Elevance Health Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001156039-26-000060, filed 2026-07-15): Q2 2026 average diluted shares 217.9M (H1 219.1M; FY2025 224.6M). The count is falling: 216,869,290 shares were outstanding at 2026-07-10 (10-Q cover), Elevance bought back 0.7M shares in Q2 and holds ~$5.3B of remaining authorization. Using the weighted 217.9M is mildly conservative (~-$2/share). |
| Market price | $418.25 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:48 UTC |
Explore more
Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Healthcare stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive ELV valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.