Is Equifax Inc. (EFX) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $188.33, Equifax Inc. (EFX) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $59.11 and $221.12 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Equifax Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 73% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 18.2% annual revenue growth for EFX. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, EFX's modeled DCF value ranges from about $46.17 to $129.60 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Equifax Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of EFX's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind EFX's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $6,074,500,000 | Equifax FY2025 10-K (accession 0000033185-26-000010, filed 2026-02-19): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $6,074.5M, +6.9% on FY2024's $5,681.1M. Segments (10-K): Workforce Solutions $2,582.3M (43%, 44.2% operating margin), U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) $2,078.5M (34%, 22.9%), International $1,413.7M. Calendar fiscal year. UNCHANGED as the base; 2026 belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $3,349.0M (Q1 $1,648.9M + Q2 $1,700.1M), +12.4% on H1 2025's $2,979.0M. About 4 points of Q2's 11% growth was FICO mortgage-score royalties that Equifax passes through at roughly zero margin (Q2 slides as reported by Investing.com: '7% excluding FICO mortgage royalties'). |
| Base EBIT margin | 18.0% | Equifax FY2025 10-K (accession 0000033185-26-000010, filed 2026-02-19): us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss $1,095.2M / $6,074.5M = 18.03% (10-K KPI table: 18.0%; FY2024 18.3%, FY2023 17.7%). GAAP, and deliberately NOT adjusted: it carries ~$121M (2.0% of revenue) of items Equifax excludes from its adjusted figures - realignment $49.9M, acquisition costs $35.0M, a $30.0M legal settlement, antitrust costs $5.4M, 2017-breach accruals $1.0M (4Q25 release, reconciliation B). FY2024 carried ~$132M of the same kinds of items, so they recur every year and are treated as a cost of doing business. It also carries $250.2M of acquired-intangible amortization (us-gaap:AmortizationOfIntangibleAssets), which this model keeps as a real cost (see da_pct_revenue). CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: $601.9M / $3,349.0M = 17.97%, against 18.35% in H1 2025 - but H1 2026 includes a $40M net legal-settlement charge (a $100M accrual less $60M expected insurance, for the 2022 credit-score coding issue); without it H1 is 19.2%. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 11% → 5% → 6% → 6% → 5% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide rate shared by every researched model. |
| Beta | 1.34 | Yahoo Finance / yfinance published 5Y-monthly beta: Published 1.341, used as is - no normalization, the same policy as Lennox and A. O. Smith in this tracker. A credit bureau is often thought of as a steady toll road, which argues lower; but EFX's returns carry the mortgage cycle, the 2017 breach and now regulatory shocks (the stock fell from ~$189 at end-August to ~$137 at end-September), which argues the measured figure is honest. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $6-9/share; at 1.0 the value is ~$100, and only a beta of ~0.63 (WACC ~7.5%) reaches today's price. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Arguably conservative for a data business whose long-term framework is 7-10% growth; 3.0% adds ~$7/share. Must remain < WACC of 10.14%. |
| Diluted shares | 119M | Equifax Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0000033185-26-000028, filed 2026-07-21): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 119.2M (H1 119.9M; FY2025 124.1M). The count is FALLING: Equifax bought back 4.0M shares in 2025 and ~2.8M in H1 2026 ($560M) under a $3B authorization; 117.6M were outstanding at 2026-06-30. Further Q3 buybacks are not reflected (no filing yet); they would be roughly value-neutral at fair prices. |
| Market price | $188.33 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:48 UTC |
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