Is Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $346.31, Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) trades 6% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $327.44 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices DELL overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -5.4% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values DELL at about $204.80 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts Dell Technologies Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 12.0%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 62% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — DELL would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 14.2% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, DELL's modeled DCF value ranges from about $167.22 to $268.65 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Dell Technologies Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of DELL's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind DELL's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $113,538,000,000 | Dell Technologies FY2026 10-K (accession 0001571996-26-000008, filed 2026-03-16); same figure in the Q4 FY26 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001571996-26-000003, 2026-02-26): Total net revenue for the fiscal year ended 2026-01-30: $113,538M, +19% on FY2025's $95,567M. ISG $60,826M (+40%; AI-optimized servers $24,683M, traditional servers & networking $19,512M, storage $16,631M), CSG $50,984M (+5%). UNCHANGED as the base — FY2027's explosive growth belongs in the forecast. CROSS-CHECK, H1 FY2027 (six months to 2026-07-31): revenue $90,813M, +71% on H1 FY2026's $53,154M — the first half of this year alone is 80% of the whole of the base year. |
| Base EBIT margin | 7.2% | Dell Q4 FY26 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001571996-26-000003, 2026-02-26) + FY2026 10-K: GAAP operating income $8,149M / revenue $113,538M = 7.18%. GAAP, not Dell's non-GAAP $9,991M (8.8%): amortization of EMC-merger intangibles ($497M), SBC ($723M) and 'other corporate expenses' stay inside EBIT. Interest and other, net (-$886M, which includes the gain on the Secureworks sale and strategic-investment gains) sits below this line and is excluded. CROSS-CHECK, the latest quarters on the same GAAP basis: H1 FY2027 $9,041M / $90,813M = 9.96%, Q2 FY2027 alone $5,385M / $46,971M = 11.46%. The step-up is opex leverage (opex fell from 12.8% of revenue in FY2026 to 9.4% in H1 FY2027) plus a Q2 gross-margin lift the 10-Q attributes to 'disciplined pricing' during memory-cost inflation. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 69% → 7% → 1% → 3% → 3% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.41 | Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.409, used as published (rounded to 1.41). Cost of equity = 5.24% + 1.41 x 5.0% = 12.29%. NOT normalized: Dell's high measured beta is consistent with what it is — a hardware business whose revenue depends on enterprise and hyperscaler capex cycles — and there is no clean reason to move it either way. Two distortions noted, not adjusted for: the window opens just before the November 2021 VMware spin-off, and the 2026 move (roughly $110 to $595 within 52 weeks) is only a handful of monthly observations. Each 0.1 of beta is worth roughly $11/share here (1.31 gives $215.66); normalizing to 1.2 would give $229.02. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. For Dell this is neither generous nor stingy: the 10-K shows revenue of $88,425M in FY2024 and $95,567M in FY2025, so the pre-AI business was not a growth business, and the AI step-up is captured in the explicit years. A 2.0% terminal rate takes ~$7/share off ($197.66). Must remain well below WACC of 11.98%; it does. |
| Diluted shares | 652M | Dell Q2 FY27 10-Q (accession 0001571996-26-000046, filed 2026-09-08): Q2 FY2027 weighted-average diluted shares 652M (H1: 654M; Dell reports this line only to the million). Used per the house rule. CONSERVATIVE against the period-end count: Dell bought back $5.4B of stock in H1 (~20M shares) and shares outstanding were 635.8M on 2026-09-01, so the slice count is already ~2.5% below the weighted figure; using 636M would add ~$5/share. |
| Market price | $346.31 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:32 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Technology stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive DELL valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.