Is CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $228.58, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $53.24 and $53.24 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.5%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 83% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — CRWD would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 18.9% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CRWD's modeled DCF value ranges from about $11.45 to $17.81 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CRWD's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind CRWD's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $4,812,000,000 | CrowdStrike FY2026 10-K (accession 0001535527-26-000010, filed 2026-03-05): Total revenue $4,812,005K for the year ended 2026-01-31 (subscription $4,564,683K + professional services $247,322K), +21.7% on FY2025's $3,953,624K, which was itself +29.4% on FY2024's $3,055,555K. Same figure in the Q4 FY2026 release (8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-03-03). CrowdStrike's year ends 31 January, so FY2026 is Feb-2025 to Jan-2026. UNCHANGED as the base; the newer quarters belong in Year 1. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 revenue was $2,856.5M, +25.7% on H1 FY2026's $2,272.4M, and Q2 alone grew 25.8% — growth has ACCELERATED for five straight quarters, so FY2026 is not a peak base. |
| Base EBIT margin | -6.1% | CrowdStrike FY2026 10-K (accession 0001535527-26-000010, filed 2026-03-05): GAAP loss from operations $(293,292)K / revenue $4,812,005K = -6.10%. This is the GAAP line, with stock-based compensation EXPENSED: SBC and related payroll taxes were $1,130.6M (23.5% of revenue). Two non-recurring items depress it: $117.7M of July 19 Incident costs and $44.8M of strategic-plan (restructuring) charges; excluding only those two the margin is -2.7%. CrowdStrike's headline 'non-GAAP' margin was 21.7% ($1,046.5M) — the 28-point gap is almost entirely SBC. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2027 GAAP operating margin was -2.2% ($(63.8)M on $2,856.5M), Q2 alone -2.3%; non-GAAP 24.4% / 25.3%. Used by the engine only to set the 'peak margin' for the cyclical check; the DCF itself runs off the forecast margins. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 25% → 22% → 19% → 16% → 13% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.25 | Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance: Published 5-year monthly beta 1.255, used as published — no normalization. It sits where a large, high-multiple software name should, and the stock's own path (a 52-week range of $85.68-$273.54 on a split-adjusted basis, +43% since the Q2 print) argues against normalizing DOWN. Each 0.1 of beta moves the value ~$0.65/share. Cost of equity = 5.24% + 1.255 x 5.0% = 11.52%. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. FLAG, AND IT IS THE STRUCTURAL REASON THIS MODEL CANNOT REACH THE PRICE: revenue is still growing 13% in FY2031 and management's own goal ($20B ending ARR by FY2036) implies roughly 10% a year for FY2032-36. Dropping from 13% to 2.5% in a single step understates a company still compounding. The house method keeps a 5-year explicit horizon for every company; the cost of that is stated here rather than hidden. 3.5% adds ~$1.10/share — small, because the explicit years are worth so little that the terminal cash flow itself is the binding constraint. Must remain < WACC of 11.50%. |
| Diluted shares | 1,044M | CrowdStrike Q2 FY2027 release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001535527-26-000029); 10-Q accession 0001535527-26-000031: Q2 FY2027 weighted-average DILUTED shares 1,044,469K (split-adjusted; basic 1,019,448K). Management guides ~1,048M for Q3 and ~1,044M for FY2027. Used instead of the 1,023.9M outstanding because that is how this model carries SBC dilution. The count rises ~2% a year (996.7M basic in H1 FY2026, 1,017.2M in H1 FY2027); the $1.5B buyback authorization has been used for only $226M ($175.6M in H1 FY2027) and does not offset it. |
| Market price | $228.58 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:39 UTC |
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