Is CRH plc (CRH) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $97.73, CRH plc (CRH) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $44.60 and $197.37 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts CRH plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.6%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 73% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 8.0% annual revenue growth for CRH. Our base case instead compounds to about 4.0% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CRH's modeled DCF value ranges from about $45.44 to $114.31 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what CRH plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CRH's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind CRH's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $37,447,000,000 | CRH FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-009043, filed 2026-02-18), calendar year ended 2025-12-31; Q4/FY2025 results 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001628280-26-009032): Total revenues $37,447M (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax), +5.3% on FY2024's $35,572M. THE GROWTH WAS BOUGHT, NOT ORGANIC: the 10-K's analysis of change shows acquisitions +$2.2B (38 deals, $4.1B of consideration, largest Eco Material Technologies), divestitures -$0.5B, currency +$0.4B and ORGANIC revenue -$265M (Americas Materials -$73M, Americas Building -$102M, International -$90M), i.e. about -0.7%, on weather-hit volumes. History on the same tag: $29,206M FY2021, $32,723M FY2022, $34,949M FY2023, $35,572M FY2024. Mix FY2025: Americas Materials Solutions (aggregates, cement, asphalt, readymix, paving) $17,029M, Americas Building Solutions $7,122M, International Solutions (mostly Europe) $13,296M. UNCHANGED as the base - the DCF grows it by forecast.revenue_growth. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $18,147M, +7.0% on H1 2025's $16,962M (Q2 8-K Ex-99.1); organic +2.6% (+$449M), acquisitions +$1.0B, divestitures -$0.6B, currency +$0.36B (10-Q MD&A). Trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30: $38,632M. The base still contains the lawn and garden, construction accessories and MoistureShield businesses sold in Q2 2026 - see forecast.revenue_growth and special_cases. |
| Base EBIT margin | 14.5% | CRH Q4/FY2025 results 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001628280-26-009032) + FY2025 10-K (accession 0001628280-26-009043): GAAP operating income $5,440M / revenue $37,447M = 14.53% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). It is AFTER a $40M impairment (14.63% before it) and $45M of 'substantial acquisition-related costs', and it INCLUDES a $235M 'gain on disposal of long-lived assets' ($237M in FY2024) - CRH sells surplus land and depleted sites every year and management counts the proceeds in its own Adjusted Free Cash Flow, so it is treated as recurring; stripping it from every year would take ~$3.90/share off. Management cites a '12th consecutive year of margin expansion'; on the GAAP tag operating margin ran 11.4% FY2021, 11.6% FY2022, 12.0% FY2023, 13.8% FY2024, 14.5% FY2025 (same tag); Adjusted EBITDA margin 19.5% FY2024 to 20.5% FY2025. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: operating income $2,041M = 11.2% of sales (11.5% in H1 2025) - H1 is seasonally weak (Q1 is a loss-making winter quarter for the Americas) and carries a $48M goodwill impairment on the construction-accessories sale; Q2 alone was 19.3% (19.0%). Operating leases: ~$0.3B a year of operating-lease cost stays inside this EBIT, consistent with leaving operating-lease liabilities out of net debt. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 5% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation when the program's models were set. Shared by every model in this tracker. ~71% of CRH's FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA came from its Americas segments and its shares and bonds are dollar-listed on the NYSE, so the US rate is the right base. |
| Beta | 1.19 | Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-05: Published 5Y-monthly beta 1.191, used AS IS - no normalization, the same policy as Masco (1.294) and Caterpillar in this tracker. CRH joined the S&P 500 in 2025 (FY2025 results release), which may have changed who holds it, but nothing in the filings gives a reason to override the published figure. THE BIGGEST SINGLE LEVER: each 0.1 of beta is worth ~$5.00/share (1.091 gives ~$73.10; 1.291 ~$63.10), and a beta of ~0.93 (WACC ~8.6%) is what today's price needs - see what_market_believes. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability with every other company in this tracker. For CRH it is neither generous nor stingy: aggregates are local near-monopolies with long reserve lives and pricing that has historically run ahead of inflation, but organic volume across the portfolio has been flat to down in two of the last two full years. 3.0% adds ~$5.50/share; 2.0% takes ~$4.75 off. Must remain < WACC of 9.58%. |
| Diluted shares | 669M | CRH Q2 2026 results 8-K Ex-99.1 income statement (accession 0001628280-26-050752) + Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001628280-26-050755): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 668.8M (basic 667.2M); H1 670.3M; FY2025 677.0M; 665.9M outstanding at 2026-06-30. Ordinary shares of EUR 0.32 each, listed directly on the NYSE (no ADR; the London listing is under review for delisting), so one share here is one share on the exchange. The count fell ~1.3% a year on buybacks, but CRH 'has not initiated a new tranche' since the last one completed on 2026-07-28 (year-to-date $0.7B), to fund Arcosa, so no further shrinkage is assumed. Using the weighted count is the house rule; the 665.9M outstanding would add ~$0.30/share. |
| Market price | $97.73 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 06:04 UTC |
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