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Is Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) overvalued or undervalued?

Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice

Fair value
$594.60
Market price
$457.97
Upside to fair value
+29.8%
Verdict
23% below fair value

Test the assumptions — move the discount rate

The DCF value below is a real engine result at each WACC (not a re-estimate). Drag to see how sensitive CPAY's DCF is to the discount rate.

Market price: $457.97

At a recent price of $457.97, Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) trades 23% below TickerWorth's blended fair value of $594.60 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices CPAY undervalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits above the market, an implied +29.8% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values CPAY at about $390.15 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Corpay, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 78% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 9.8% annual revenue growth for CPAY. Our base case instead compounds to about 9.2% a year over the same forecast, so the market's implied growth is broadly in line with our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CPAY's modeled DCF value ranges from about $250.26 to $736.78 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Corpay, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CPAY's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.

The assumptions behind CPAY's DCF

InputValueSource
Base-year revenue$4,528,400,000Corpay FY2025 10-K (accession 0001175454-26-000018, filed 2026-02-27): us-gaap:Revenues FY2025 $4,528,403K, +13.9% on FY2024 $3,974.6M (10-K: 'organic growth of 10%'; the rest is acquisitions, mainly Alpha Group from Q4 2025, and fuel/FX). Segment mix FY2025: Vehicle Payments $2,138.7M (47%), Corporate Payments $1,635.1M (36%), Lodging $469.5M (10%), Other $285.1M (6%). UNCHANGED as the base; the year in progress belongs in forecast Y1. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 revenue $2,599.8M, +23% on H1 2025 $2,107.7M (Q2 alone $1,338.8M, +21%, organic +10%) — the gap between reported and organic growth is Alpha, partly offset by the PayByPhone sale (closed March 2026).
Base EBIT margin43.1%Corpay FY2025 10-K (accession 0001175454-26-000018, filed 2026-02-27): GAAP operating income FY2025 $1,994.1M LESS the $42.3M 'gain on disposition, net' (a one-off) = $1,951.8M / $4,528.4M = 43.10%. Reported margin incl. the gain is 44.0%. This EBIT is AFTER $261.9M of acquired-intangible amortization and $102.6M of SBC; it is far below the 'adjusted EBITDA margin' (~56%) Corpay headlines. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026 on the same basis: operating income $1,108.4M less the $122.5M PayByPhone gain plus the $100M FTC settlement charge (one-off, carried in net debt instead — see market.net_debt) = $1,085.9M / $2,599.8M = 41.8%; H1 2025 was 43.0% ($906.5M/$2,107.7M). The H1 2026 dip is Alpha's added amortization (D&A rose to 9.0% of revenue from 8.7%) and $55M of integration/deal costs. Corpay is seasonally stronger in H2: FY2025 H2 margin was 43.2%.
Forecast revenue growth17% → 8% → 8% → 7% → 6%Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast
Risk-free rate5.2%US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide input shared by every researched model.
Beta0.89yfinance 'beta' (Yahoo 5Y monthly): Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.894, used as published (rounded to 0.89). Not normalized: Corpay has a long, unbroken return history as FleetCor/Corpay and no spin-off distorts it. Arguments both ways — fuel-price and FX sensitivity argue higher; recurring B2B payments argue lower — so the published figure stands. Each 0.1 of beta moves the value by roughly $30/share (0.99 gives ~$359).
Terminal growth2.5%Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP). Kept despite ~10% organic growth today because ~45% of revenue is fuel-card and lodging payments facing EV adoption and a shrinking per-transaction take; the faster-growing Corporate Payments half argues higher. Must remain well below WACC (~8.4%).
Diluted shares66MCorpay 2Q 2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001175454-26-000045, filed 2026-08-05): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 66,325K (H1 2026 67,379K; FY2025 71,058K). The count is FALLING fast: Corpay bought back $1,112.5M of stock in H1 2026 (1M shares for $321M in Q2 alone) and guides to 'approximately 66 million fully diluted shares'. Shares outstanding per yfinance are 65.66M. Using 66.3M does not credit future buybacks — consistent with the house method (cash returned is already counted once in FCF).
Market price$457.97Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 06:00 UTC

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TickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.