Is Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $72.45, Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $36.45 and $113.50 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Columbia Sportswear Company's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 70% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, COLM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $47.18 to $76.27 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Columbia Sportswear Company would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of COLM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind COLM's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $3,397,400,000 | Columbia Sportswear FY2025 10-K (accession 0001050797-26-000028, filed 2026-02-25): us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, FY2025 = $3,397,351K, +0.9% vs FY2024 $3,368.6M (+1% constant currency). The top line has gone nowhere for four years: $3,464.2M (FY2022), $3,487.2M (FY2023), $3,368.6M (FY2024), $3,397.4M (FY2025). CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 net sales $1,393.4M, +0.7% on H1 2025 $1,383.7M (-1% constant currency) per the Q2 2026 10-Q. Calendar fiscal year, so no year-mapping issue. |
| Base EBIT margin | 7.0% | Columbia Sportswear Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001050797-26-000005, filed 2026-02-03); FY2025 10-K: ADJUSTED FOR ONE NON-CASH ITEM. GAAP operating income $207.0M (6.09%) included $29.0M of impairment charges for prAna and Mountain Hardwear ($21.0M goodwill + $8.0M trademark, 10-K XBRL GoodwillImpairmentLoss / ImpairmentOfIntangibleAssetsIndefinitelivedExcludingGoodwill). Excluding them: $236.0M / $3,397.4M = 6.95%. The base-year margin only anchors the display and the cyclical-flag peak test; it is not grown forward. HISTORY THAT MATTERS: operating margin was 13.0% in FY2019, 14.4% in FY2021, 11.3% FY2022, 8.9% FY2023 (incl. a $25M impairment), 8.0% FY2024, 6.1% FY2025 — four straight years down as U.S. wholesale weakened and DTC store costs rose. CROSS-CHECK: H1 2026 operating margin 5.2% ($72.9M) includes ~$60M of one-time IEEPA tariff refunds; without them H1 would have been ~0.9%. H1 is seasonally the weak half (FY2025 H1 was 1.7%); the business earns its money in Q3-Q4 on Fall/outerwear shipments. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 2% → 2% → 3% → 3% → 3% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.00 | Assumption — normalized estimate (published COLM beta 0.929; peer betas from the same yfinance feed, read 2026-10-05): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.929. NORMALIZED UP a little, to 1.00, which is CONSERVATIVE: it raises the cost of equity from 9.89% to 10.24% and LOWERS the value by about $2.15/share (the published beta gives ~$59.23). Reason: 0.93 sits below every outdoor/athletic apparel peer on the same feed at the same time except LULU (0.92) — NKE 1.10, DECK 1.12, OXM 1.11, LEVI 1.32, G-III 1.28, VFC 1.58, UAA 1.62 — and a 60-month regression has a standard error of ~0.2-0.3. Not taken all the way to the ~1.1-1.3 peer cluster because COLM has NO debt (its equity beta is its asset beta, while levered peers like VFC carry financial risk in theirs) and the Boyle family's large holding makes the float steadier. Consistent with this tracker's NKE (1.11) and LULU (1.10) treatment, shaded toward COLM's own figure. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Well below the 10.24% WACC. Not generous for COLM: revenue was $3.04B in FY2019 and $3.40B in FY2025 (1.9% a year), so 2.5% assumes the brand at least holds share. 2.0% would take ~$2.05/share off. |
| Diluted shares | 51M | Columbia Sportswear Q2 2026 10-Q (accession 0001050797-26-000136, filed 2026-08-06): Q2 2026 weighted-average diluted shares 51,264K (basic 51,170K). Shares outstanding were 51,193,194 on 2026-07-24 (10-Q cover), so the count is current. Buybacks have been large: 2,498,685 shares repurchased for $150.0M in Q1 2026 at $60.03; none in Q2; $276.5M of authorization remains. FY2025 diluted count was 54.76M. No credit is given for FUTURE buybacks — they spend free cash flow the model already counts. |
| Market price | $72.45 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:42 UTC |
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