Is Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $136.10, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) sits above every lens we ran: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $32.93 and $32.93 per share. For a cyclical we value through the cycle we publish a range only (peer multiples — our researched DCF held out as mid-cycle): where in the cycle the business sits decides where in that range it lands, and a single figure would claim we know that precisely. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Coinbase Global, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 17.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 69% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — COIN would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 9.0% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, COIN's modeled DCF value ranges from about $43.88 to $55.21 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Coinbase Global, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of COIN's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind COIN's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $7,181,325,000 | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-12) — Consolidated Statements of Operations and revenue disaggregation note (Note 4): Total revenue $7,181,325K, as filed, and it foots from the filed lines: net revenue $6,883,438K = transaction revenue $4,055,390K (consumer, net $3,322,835K + institutional, net $479,667K + other transaction $252,888K) + subscription and services revenue $2,828,048K (stablecoin revenue $1,348,821K + blockchain rewards $677,405K + interest and finance fee income $247,047K + other subscription and services $554,775K), plus other revenue of $297,887K (corporate interest and other income) = $7,181,325K. The mix is the story of the file: transaction revenue is 59% of net revenue and subscription and services 41% — and inside the second line, stablecoin revenue alone ($1,348,821K) is 19% of TOTAL revenue, paid by one counterparty (the 10-K discloses one counterparty at 19% of total revenue in FY2025, 14% in FY2024, 22% in FY2023). Growth into the base year: +9.4% on FY2024's $6,564,028K, after +111% in FY2024 on FY2023's $3,108,383K — FY2025 is a LATE-CYCLE year, not a peak-growth year: record dollars, but growth had already decelerated hard and the margin had already halved (see base_year.ebit_margin) before the downturn that the 2026 10-Qs then filed. This file takes the base year as filed rather than normalizing it away (see special_cases for how the cycle is carried instead). |
| Base EBIT margin | 20.0% | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-12) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: Operating income as filed: total revenue $7,181,325K less total operating expenses $5,745,884K (transaction expense $1,020,230K + technology and development $1,670,605K + sales and marketing $1,058,577K + general and administrative $1,619,642K + losses on crypto assets held for operations $20,704K + other operating expense, net $356,126K) = $1,435,441K; $1,435,441K / $7,181,325K = 19.99%. The filed margin path is the cycle in one line: -5.20% in FY2023 (-$161,662K on $3,108,383K), +35.15% in FY2024 ($2,307,160K on $6,564,028K), +19.99% in FY2025. Two filed facts sit inside the FY2025 print and are named, not adjusted away: (1) other operating expense carries $345,210K of 'platform-related incidents' — substantially the May 2025 Data Theft Incident (voluntary customer reimbursements and direct legal costs; $311.2M of it was paid in cash in FY2025) — excluding that one line the FY2025 margin is 24.80%; (2) sales and marketing grew +62% year over year ($654,444K to $1,058,577K), the clearest filed sign the base year was already late-cycle. Everything volatile sits BELOW this line in the filing and is excluded from the margin by construction: losses on crypto assets held for investment of $528,857K and a $680,520K gain on investments (the Circle IPO mark and partial sale) inside other income, net. First-half 2026 printed an operating LOSS (see forecast.ebit_margin), which is why the forecast path starts negative and rebuilds, rather than anchoring on 19.99%. |
| Forecast revenue growth | -29% → 32% → 24% → 18% → 13% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker (most recently HOOD, V and MA, 2026-10-26), held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (4.96% on 2026-10-22); refreshing this one input at the next tracker-wide update would raise this value to about $45.25 — it is not refreshed for one company alone. |
| Beta | 2.80 | Assumption — Own regressions of COIN on the S&P 500 (VOO as the index proxy) from Yahoo daily/weekly/monthly price history (delayed): Measured 2026-10-26 against the S&P 500 (VOO proxy) from Yahoo price history: 3.43 (5Y monthly, 66 months — effectively the whole listed life since the April 2021 direct listing), 4.74 (3Y monthly), 2.80 (2Y weekly), 2.26 (1Y weekly), 2.64 (2Y daily). The value used, 2.80, is the median of the five windows — the same method every researched model in this tracker documents. NOT re-measured at the 2026-10-29 Q3 refresh (three trading days later; the program does not re-measure beta on a quarterly refresh). Cross-check only, per house method: the published beta a quote page shows is 3.41 (Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-26) — essentially the 5Y-monthly window — and at 3.41 this refreshed model prints $42.72. No Blume shrink is applied in either direction. Every window describes a genuinely high-beta stock — a crypto-cycle instrument whose 52-week range to the original build date is $139.11-$373.25 — and the windows span $34.84 (3Y monthly, 4.74) to $56.02 (1Y weekly, 2.26) a share on the refreshed model. This input is the second-largest in the model after the cycle itself: each 0.5 of beta is worth roughly $5.90 a share, and the price itself would need a beta of about 0.32 (see what_market_believes). |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker. |
| Diluted shares | 278M | Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-10-29) — cover page share counts at 2026-10-22 and the net income (loss) per share note (three and nine months ended 2026-09-30); FY2025 Form 10-K EPS note: Built from the filing's own pieces, because the nine-month period is a LOSS period and prints no diluted count of its own (9M 2026 diluted = basic = 263,962K, every dilutive security excluded as anti-dilutive). PERIOD-END AS-CONVERTED BASE: shares actually outstanding at 2026-10-22 per the 10-Q cover were Class A 223,729,527 + Class B 41,033,891 = 264,763,418. Class B is the founders' stock (20 votes per share, identical dividend and liquidation rights to Class A, the filing reports the same EPS for both classes, and it converts into Class A ONE-FOR-ONE at the holder's option — FY2025 10-K, capital stock note), so the economic census is A + B converted, exactly as for HOOD and V: the market price is for a Class A share, but Class B is a full economic claim on the same company. DILUTIVE EQUITY EFFECT: +13,299K, the treasury-method effect the filing itself measured in its most recent PROFITABLE period — Q3 2026 itself (EPS note: stock options 12,512K + restricted stock units 787K + performance RSUs and restricted stock nil; Q3 basic 263,788K + 13,299K + the converts' 10,892K if-converted effect = the filed Q3 diluted count of 287,979K, which foots). TOTAL: 264,763K + 13,299K = 278,062K, entered as 278M. DELIBERATELY EXCLUDED, with the filing's own reasons: the convertible notes' underlying shares — excluded as ANTI-DILUTIVE for the nine months ended 2026-09-30 in the filing's own EPS note (36,110K of securities were anti-dilutive in the nine months). Q3's standalone EPS DID include a 10,892K if-converted effect, but only because Q3 was profitable on a $715,022K crypto-investment MARK, not on operations at scale; the notes' conversion prices are ~$333.54 (2030 series) and ~$454.44 (2029 series, and the 2032 series issued beside it), 2.1-2.8x the price used here; the company may settle conversions in cash at its election and demonstrated the practice by repaying the entire $1,273M of 2026 converts IN CASH at maturity on 2026-06-01; and it bought capped calls against the exposure ($224,250K paid in FY2025). Counting debt in the bridge AND shares in the census would charge the same claim twice (the HOOD convertible treatment, followed here). CROSS-CHECKS, all priced: the Q3 2026 filed diluted weighted-average count of 287,979K (which includes the converts) prints $46.91; the period-end basic count alone (264.8M) prints $50.98; adding the converts' 10,892K on top of this census (289M) prints $46.74. Buybacks shrank the base through the first half ($1,243,488K in H1 2026) and then essentially PAUSED in Q3 (nine-month repurchases of $1,248,804K per the Q3 cash-flow statement — only ~$5M more), partly offset by equity issuance — the count fell from 267,836K at FY2025 year-end to 264,763K at 2026-10-22 — and this static census takes no credit for further shrinkage. |
| Market price | $136.10 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC |
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