Is Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $47.90, Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $25.69 and $81.07 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Core & Main, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 8.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 75% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CNM's modeled DCF value ranges from about $28.59 to $77.78 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Core & Main, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CNM's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind CNM's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $7,647,000,000 | Core & Main FY2025 10-K (accession 0001856525-26-000031, filed 2026-03-24), fiscal year ended 2026-02-01; Core & Main Q4/FY2025 results 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001856525-26-000030, 2026-03-24): Net sales $7,647M for fiscal 2025 (52 weeks ended 2026-02-01), +2.8% on fiscal 2024's $7,441M, which had 53 weeks; average daily net sales +4.8%, 'driven by higher volumes and acquisitions'. Product mix: pipes, valves & fittings $5,137M, storm drainage $1,194M, fire protection $600M, meter products $716M. End markets (company estimate): ~44% municipal, ~38% non-residential, ~18% residential; roughly half new construction, half repair-and-replace. HISTORY (XBRL RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax): $3,642M FY2020, $5,004M FY2021, $6,651M FY2022, $6,702M FY2023, $7,441M FY2024, $7,647M FY2025 - the FY2021-22 jump was mostly pipe-price inflation plus acquisitions. ACQUISITIONS SUPPLY A LARGE SHARE OF GROWTH: cash paid for businesses $231M FY2023, $741M FY2024 (eight deals, $769M transaction value), $61M FY2025 ($76M, Canada Waterworks Sep-2025 and Pioneer Supply Jan-2026). The company does not publish an organic growth rate. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2026 (to 2026-08-02) net sales $4,055M, +1.3% on $4,004M, 'primarily due to acquisitions' (Q1 flat on lower volume, Q2 +2.5% across volume, price and acquisitions); no acquisitions closed in H1 FY2026. Trailing twelve months to 2026-08-02: $7,698M. Unchanged as the base. |
| Base EBIT margin | 11.4% | Core & Main FY2025 10-K (accession 0001856525-26-000031, filed 2026-03-24), fiscal year ended 2026-02-01 (intangible-assets note, amortization $149M); Core & Main Q4/FY2025 results 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001856525-26-000030, 2026-03-24); Core & Main Q2 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001856525-26-000092, filed 2026-09-09), quarter ended 2026-08-02: OPERATING PROFIT BEFORE ACQUISITION AMORTIZATION (EBITA), NOT GAAP OPERATING MARGIN. GAAP operating income $722M (9.44% of sales) PLUS amortization of acquired intangibles $149M (10-K intangible-assets note) = $871M = 11.39%. Why: amortization is a non-cash charge for customer lists bought in past deals (the 2017 carve-out from HD Supply and ~40 tuck-ins). It runs off on a filed schedule ($141M FY2026 falling to $97M FY2030) and this model credits NO future acquisitions, so it should create no future amortization either. The engine's D&A line is therefore set to DEPRECIATION ONLY (see da_pct_revenue), so EBITDA = EBITA + depreciation ~ $908M, which reconciles to the company's Adjusted EBITDA of $931M after adding back equity-based compensation $17M and acquisition/other expenses $6M. The cost of this simplification: the tax shield on the remaining amortization (~$30M a year, falling) is not credited - a conservative call worth roughly $0.60/share. SBC ($17M) stays expensed inside this margin. HISTORY of the same EBITA margin: 13.5% FY2022 (pipe-price inflation peak), 12.9% FY2023, 11.7% FY2024, 11.4% FY2025 - the post-inflation fade has flattened. CROSS-CHECK: H1 FY2026 EBITA = operating income $404M + amortization $71M = $475M, 11.7% of sales, vs 11.4% in H1 FY2025 (gross margin 27.0% vs 26.7%). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 2% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): FRED DGS10, 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; the program-wide risk-free rate shared by every researched model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 0.91 | Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta via yfinance, read 2026-10-06: Yahoo Finance 5Y-monthly beta 0.913, read via yfinance on 2026-10-06. Used as published, the same policy as every other model here. It is plausible for a business that is ~44% municipal, though the shares have behaved more cyclically this year (down from ~$52 in January). Each 0.1 of beta moves the value by roughly $3.30/share; a beta of 1.0 gives ~$40.50. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Reasonable for a distributor tied to replacing aging water pipe, a need that does not end, but growth past FY2030 is organic only - no credit for the acquisitions CNM will keep making. 3.0% adds ~$3.90/share, 2.0% takes ~$3.30 off. Must remain < WACC of ~8.7%. |
| Diluted shares | 193M | Core & Main Q2 FY2026 results 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001856525-26-000091, 2026-09-09) income statement; Core & Main Q2 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001856525-26-000092, filed 2026-09-09), quarter ended 2026-08-02 EPS note: Weighted-average diluted shares for Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks to 2026-08-02): 193,359,334. This INCLUDES the ~6.3-6.7M Class B / partnership units held by management under the if-converted method (10-Q EPS note), which is why the non-controlling interest ($73M carrying value) is NOT also subtracted in net debt - those holders are counted as shares. Period-end shares were lower: 190.74M Class A + Class B at 2026-08-02, plus ~0.4M of dilutive awards, after record buybacks (5.7M shares and ~$270M year to date including $11M after quarter-end). House rule uses the weighted count; the period-end count would raise the per-share value by about 1.1% (~$0.50), so this choice is conservative and is flagged in caveats. |
| Market price | $47.90 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC |
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