Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) overvalued or undervalued?

At a recent price of $35.74, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) trades 76% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $20.25 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices CMG overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -43.3% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.

One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values CMG at about $14.77 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.

The valuation discounts Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.9%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 74% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.

Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — CMG would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 7.9% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.

Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CMG's modeled DCF value ranges from about $11.39 to $21.55 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.

How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CMG's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.