Is Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $25.05, Corporación América Airports S.A. (CAAP) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $14.50 and $52.52 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Corporación América Airports S.A.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 12.3%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 1.0%. About 62% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 17.5% annual revenue growth for CAAP. Our base case instead compounds to about 6.3% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, CAAP's modeled DCF value ranges from about $12.55 to $20.82 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Corporación América Airports S.A. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of CAAP's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind CAAP's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $1,670,700,000 | CAAP 4Q25 / FY2025 results release, 6-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-028980, filed 2026-03-17); FY2025 20-F (accession 0001104659-26-029442): THREE DELIBERATE STRIPS FROM THE HEADLINE, EACH A REPORTED FIGURE. IFRS revenue was $1,962.1M, but (1) $205.7M of it is IFRIC 12 'construction service' revenue — the cost of building concession assets booked as revenue at ~zero margin; it is capex wearing a revenue costume, so it is removed here and the spending is charged in capex instead. That leaves revenue ex-IFRIC 12 of $1,756.4M as reported. (2) IAS 29 HYPERINFLATION: Argentina is a hyperinflationary economy, so its subsidiaries' P&L is restated to year-end purchasing power and translated at the CLOSING exchange rate; whether that inflates or deflates the USD figure depends on whether the peso lost value faster or slower than prices during the year. In FY2025 it cut revenue ex-IFRIC by $32.2M, in H1 2026 it ADDED $11.7M. CAAP also reports 'ex-IAS 29' figures in historical dollars (each month translated at that month's rate) — $1,788.5M for FY2025 — and that is the base used, because it is the closest thing to the dollars actually collected. (3) BRAZIL REMOVED: Brazil revenue ex-IFRIC 12 of $117.8M (segment table, same release) is taken out because Brasília is carried at ZERO in this model — see special_cases. 1,788.5 - 117.8 = 1,670.7. CROSS-CHECK, H1 2026 on the same basis: revenue ex-IFRIC ex-IAS 29 $953.3M less Brazil ~$67.3M = ~$886M, +10.7% on H1 2025's ~$800M (6-K Ex-99.1, accession 0001104659-26-098141). |
| Base EBIT margin | 30.7% | Assumption — CAAP 4Q25 / FY2025 results release, 6-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-028980): BUILT AS EBITDA MINUS A CHOSEN D&A RATE, because reported operating income is not usable as-is. Reported Adjusted EBITDA ex-IFRIC 12 ex-IAS 29 was $730.0M. Less Brazil's segment EBITDA $51.0M (Brazil carried at zero) and less the $32.5M Peru (Chinchero) arbitration award booked in 4Q25 in 'Unallocated' — a one-off cash receipt CAAP itself strips out — leaves $646.5M = 38.70% of the $1,670.7M base. Less D&A at 8.0% of revenue (see da_pct_revenue) = 30.70%. WHY NOT REPORTED OPERATING INCOME: IFRS operating margin was 24.9% (operating income $488.3M), but IAS 29 restates Argentina's concession intangible by cumulative inflation since 1998 and so inflates amortization — FY2025 D&A was $208.4M as reported vs $91.4M in historical dollars. CAAP's own ex-IAS 29 operating margin was 30.9%. In this engine the D&A choice only moves value through the tax shield (EBITDA is what is held), so the 8% sits between the two and is explained below. CROSS-CHECK H1 2026: EBITDA ex-IFRIC ex-IAS 29 $348.7M less Brazil $28.5M = $320.2M on ~$886M = 36.1%, against ~38.2% in H1 2025 — Q2 compressed (Argentina: Flybondi fleet cut, tough cargo comparison; Uruguay one-off costs). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 8% → 8% → 6% → 5% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. Program-wide input shared by every researched model. |
| Beta | 1.69 | Assumption — Yahoo/yfinance 5Y-monthly beta 0.681 (2026-10-05) + Damodaran country default spreads (updated 2026-01-05): THE BIGGEST JUDGEMENT IN THE FILE, AND IT LOWERS THE VALUE A LOT. Published beta is 0.681. This framework has no separate country-risk input, so country risk goes in through beta, as the PDD model does. ~60% of the ex-Brazil EBITDA comes from Argentina (Moody's Caa1), with Armenia (Ba3), Ecuador (Caa3), Uruguay (Baa1) and Italy (Baa2) making up the rest. The default spreads on Damodaran's sheet, weighted by FY2025 segment EBITDA ex-IAS 29 (Argentina 6.37% x 60.1%, Armenia 3.06% x 17.7%, Uruguay 1.36% x 9.9%, Italy 1.62% x 7.3%, Ecuador 8.50% x 5.0%), come to 5.05%. That is the sovereign default spread itself — the page calls adding it 'the standard practice' — not Damodaran's larger equity-scaled premium (7.6% weighted), so this is the milder of his two methods. 5.05% / 5% ERP = +1.01 of beta: 0.681 + 1.01 = 1.69, so the cost of equity is 13.7%. WHY NOT LESS: Argentine tariffs are dollar-denominated, but they are collected in pesos under a government that has renegotiated this concession repeatedly (most recently the 2020 extension and the September 2026 rebalancing) and whose foreign-exchange restrictions were still being unwound through 2025 (20-F, Item 5). THE LEVER: the published 0.681 with no country risk gives ~$26.30/share, slightly ABOVE today's price; solving for the price gives a beta of ~0.73 (WACC ~8.3%). The market is pricing CAAP almost as if it carried no country risk at all. Sheet dated January 2026; Argentina's spread may have narrowed since, which would raise the value. |
| Terminal growth | 1.0% | Assumption — CAAP FY2025 20-F concession terms (accession 0001104659-26-029442) + Argentina rebalancing 6-K (accession 0001104659-26-111196): BELOW THE 2.5% HOUSE DEFAULT, FOR A STATED REASON: CAAP's cash flows END. These are concessions, and the assets go back to the grantor at expiry for nothing. The engine only does a perpetuity, so 1.0% is the growth rate at which a perpetuity is worth the same as the finite streams. Each concession is grown at the house 2.5% until its contracted end date, discounted at the 12.27% WACC and compared with a 2.5% perpetuity. Years left after the 2030 forecast horizon: Argentina (AA2000) to February 2056, ~25 years, worth 90% of a perpetuity; Armenia to 2067, 37 years, 97%; Uruguay (Carrasco 2053, Punta del Este 2043), 23 years, 88%; Italy (Florence 2045, Pisa 2048), 16 years, 77%; Ecuador (Guayaquil July 2031), under a year, 5%. Weighted by FY2025 EBITDA that is 85.6% of the perpetuity value, which is what ~1.0% growth delivers. NO CREDIT IS GIVEN FOR FUTURE EXTENSIONS, even though CAAP has won several (Argentina +18 years, Armenia +35, Uruguay, Galápagos). Extensions have come with large new investment commitments at regulated returns (Argentina's 14.30% IRR versus this 12.27% WACC), so each adds little value. The house 2.5% would add ~$1.80/share. |
| Diluted shares | 164M | CAAP H1 2026 interim financial statements note 14, 6-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001104659-26-098142): Issued share capital 165,219,000 shares less 1,892,093 held in treasury = 163,326,907 outstanding at 2026-06-30, plus 300,682 management-plan shares granted and not yet delivered = 163.63M. The condensed interim statements do not print a weighted diluted count; the FY2025 weighted diluted count was 162.45M, before the treasury shares were transferred to executives. H1 2026 diluted EPS of $0.79 on $129.6M of profit implies ~164M, which agrees. |
| Market price | $25.05 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:30 UTC |
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