Is Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $71.18, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $51.60 and $173.30 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 73% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ASO's modeled DCF value ranges from about $52.48 to $108.72 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ASO's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind ASO's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $6,053,400,000 | Academy Sports and Outdoors Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001817358-26-000026, filed 2026-03-17); FY2025 10-K (accession 0001817358-26-000031, filed 2026-03-17): Net sales $6,053,414K for the 52 weeks ended 2026-01-31 (us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, ties to the companyfacts API). +2.0% on FY2024's $5,933.4M with comparable sales -1.5% — the growth came from 24 new stores (322 at year-end). The longer history matters for the margin judgement: $4,829.9M (FY2019, pre-COVID), $6,773.1M peak (FY2021), then three straight declines to $5,933.4M before FY2025 turned up. CROSS-CHECK, TTM to 2026-08-01: H1 FY2026 net sales $3,089.3M vs $2,951.2M (+4.7%), so TTM revenue is $6,191.5M. Q2 FY2026 comps were -0.4% (transactions -5.3%, ticket +4.9%) after +2.9% in Q1. |
| Base EBIT margin | 8.5% | Academy Sports and Outdoors Q4/FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001817358-26-000026, filed 2026-03-17): GAAP operating income $512,184K / $6,053,414K = 8.46% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). No adjustment: the company's own non-GAAP items are only equity compensation (kept as an expense here, see sbc_treatment) and nothing one-time sits inside FY2025 operating income. LEASES: $239.9M of operating lease cost (XBRL OperatingLeaseCost, FY2025) is deducted inside this EBIT as rent, which is why lease liabilities are kept OUT of net debt. THE TREND IS THE POINT: operating margin was 2.7% (FY2018), 3.7% (FY2019), 7.4% (FY2020), 13.4% (FY2021), 13.2% (FY2022), 11.0% (FY2023), 9.1% (FY2024), 8.5% (FY2025) — four straight years of decline from the pandemic peak. CROSS-CHECK, TTM to 2026-08-01: GAAP operating income $591.6M (= $512.2M + H1 FY26 $321.0M - H1 FY25 $241.6M) = 9.55%, BUT that includes $83.7M of one-time IEEPA tariff refunds booked in Q2 FY2026 cost of goods sold (10-Q Note 10). Excluding them, TTM is $507.9M = 8.20%, below the base year: H1 FY2026 ran 7.68% ex-refund against 8.19% in H1 FY2025. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% → 4% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 0.98 | published 5Y-monthly beta (yfinance 'beta', read 2026-10-05): Published 5Y-monthly beta 0.982, used as published (rounded to 0.98), no normalization. Peer check on the same feed, same day: Dick's Sporting Goods 1.10, Boot Barn 1.76, Ulta 0.84, Tractor Supply 0.51 — ASO sits inside the range, so there is no clear reason to override it. Note that this equity beta already carries the risk of ~$1.47B of lease obligations that the capital-structure weights below do not count. A beta of 1.20 (the peer-style override used for ANF) would raise WACC by ~0.9pp and lower the value by roughly $9/share. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Well below the ~9.4% WACC. Not obviously generous: Academy still has white space to open stores outside its 21-state footprint, but revenue in FY2025 was below FY2021's and comps have been negative for three years. 2.0% would take ~$4/share off. |
| Diluted shares | 64M | Academy Sports and Outdoors Q2 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001817358-26-000149, filed 2026-09-09): Q2 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 63,551K. CONSERVATIVE because buybacks are running hard: the count was 67,689K a year earlier and 73,048K for FY2024; Academy repurchased $180.5M of stock in H1 FY2026 (3.3M shares) and shares outstanding were 61,578,891 at 2026-09-02 (10-Q cover). Using that later count would add ~3.2% (~$2.30/share). No credit is given for FUTURE buybacks (the FY2026 guide assumes 64.5M diluted shares and excludes further repurchases) — they spend free cash flow the model already counts. |
| Market price | $71.18 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:01 UTC |
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