Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $1,513, ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) trades 94% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $778.12 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices ASML overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -48.6% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values ASML at about $573.99 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts ASML Holding N.V.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 12.7%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 65% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — ASML would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price, against about 13.1% a year compounded in our base case. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ASML's modeled DCF value ranges from about $475.70 to $735.27 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what ASML Holding N.V. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ASML's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind ASML's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $38,384,000,000 | FY2025 Form 20-F (filed 2026-02-25; Annual Report 2025, US GAAP) — Consolidated Statements of Operations; Q4 2025 results release (2026-01-28): Total net sales EUR32,667.3M for FY2025, +15.6% on FY2024's EUR28,262.9M: net system sales of about EUR24,474M (300 new and 27 used lithography systems) plus EUR8,193M of Installed Base Management (service and field options on the installed fleet). ASML reports in euros under US GAAP and its 20-F states no USD convenience translation, so this file converts every EUR figure at one documented rate — the European Central Bank's euro reference rate on the balance-sheet date, EUR1 = US$1.1750 on 2025-12-31 (see special_cases) — exactly the discipline the PDD model applies with that filer's stated rate, and the discipline TSMC's model applies with its 20-F rate. Every ratio in the model is therefore the filed EUR ratio; only the units change. At the ECB rate on the build date (EUR1 = US$1.1188, 2026-10-26) the same revenue would print about 5% lower in dollars — a translation fact, disclosed in caveats, not a modelling choice smuggled into one company. |
| Base EBIT margin | 34.6% | FY2025 Form 20-F (filed 2026-02-25; Annual Report 2025, US GAAP) — Consolidated Statements of Operations: Income from operations EUR11,301.6M / total net sales EUR32,667.3M = 34.60%. Gross profit was EUR17,258.1M (52.8%); R&D took EUR4,698.8M (14.4% of sales) and SG&A EUR1,257.7M (3.9%). The filed path into the base: 32.0% in FY2024, 34.6% in FY2025, and 39.6% for the first nine months of 2026 — the base year is the last AUDITED year, not the peak interim print, and the forecast starts from the built FY2026 figure (41.8%), not from 34.60%. Two profit lines sit BELOW operating income in ASML's presentation and are not in this margin: profit from equity method investments (EUR216.7M in FY2025, essentially the Carl Zeiss SMT stake) and interest and other income, net (EUR104.5M). In Q3 2026 a EUR509.7M gain on equity investments (the Mistral AI revaluation) also landed below the operating line — it never touches this model, the same treatment TSMC's model gives its Vanguard gain. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 36% → 12% → 9% → 6% → 5% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker (most recently ARM, COIN, JNJ and TSM, 2026-10-26), held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (4.96% on 2026-10-22); refreshing it for ASML alone would break comparability — it is a tracker-wide update, flagged here rather than smuggled into one company's model. |
| Beta | 1.50 | Assumption — Own regressions of ASML (Nasdaq ordinary shares) on the S&P 500 (VOO as the index proxy) from Yahoo price history; the Nasdaq line is the listed security this model prices: Measured, on the Nasdaq shares themselves. The five windows in the APP/NBIS/ARM set: 2Y monthly 1.43 (24 observations), 2Y weekly 1.24 (104), 1Y weekly 1.50 (52), 1Y daily 2.27 (250), 6M daily 2.47 (126). The value used, 1.50, is the MEDIAN of the five (1.495, rounded). The window disagreement is documented, not hidden: the monthly and weekly windows describe a stock modestly more volatile than the market, while the daily windows — measured across the 2025-26 AI tape, in which ASML rose from the EUR800s to over EUR1,700 and swung with every export-control headline — print above 2. Published vendor betas sit inside the measured range (Finnhub prints 1.95); no shrink is applied toward any of them, because the house method is the median of the measured set, and the explainer prices the beta lever explicitly. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker. |
| Diluted shares | 389M | FY2025 Form 20-F (filed 2026-02-25; Annual Report 2025, US GAAP) — Consolidated Statements of Operations (shares used in computing per-share amounts, Note 23), cover page and Consolidated Balance Sheets; Q3 2026 US GAAP financial statements (furnished 2026-10-14) (Q3 2026 weighted counts): THE CENSUS: 388.9M — the FY2025 weighted-average DILUTED share count printed on the face of the 20-F income statement (basic 388.5M; diluted EPS EUR24.71 on net income EUR9,609.4M foots to it). The bridge around it, because this is a buyback-heavy filer and the counts must reconcile: the 20-F cover and balance sheet state 385,417,665 shares ISSUED AND OUTSTANDING at 2025-12-31 (2024: 393,283,720). ASML's equity statement carries the count net of treasury purchases as they happen — FY2025 purchases of 8.3M shares for EUR5,950.0M reduced the count in-year, while cancellations (EUR3,778.3M at cost in 2025) do not move it, because the shares were already excluded when bought; treasury shares remain on the balance sheet at cost (EUR2,252.9M at 2025-12-31) pending cancellation and future share-plan deliveries. The weighted diluted count (388.9M) sits ABOVE the year-end outstanding count (385.4M) because the buybacks landed through the year; it is the denominator consistent with the FY2025 flows and the 2025-12-31 balance-sheet pairing this model uses. The counts keep falling after the base date — 9M 2026 weighted diluted was 384.7M and Q3 2026 alone 383.5M, after EUR6,148.4M of further buybacks in the first nine months of 2026 — but those later counts are NOT used against this bridge, because the cash that bought those shares is still inside the 2025-12-31 cash figure below: pairing the September 2026 count with the December 2025 cash would count the buyback money twice. The explainer prices both neighbouring counts (385.4M year-end outstanding; 383.5M latest quarterly diluted) so the choice is visible. A new buyback program of up to EUR12B through 2028-12-31 was announced with the Q4 2025 results (2026-01-28); it shrinks future counts, and a DCF correctly ignores it — buybacks move cash and shares together. |
| Market price | $1,513 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 04:56 UTC |
Explore more
Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Technology stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive ASML valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.