Is AppLovin Corporation (APP) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $410.00, AppLovin Corporation (APP) trades 75% above TickerWorth's blended fair value of $234.91 per share — a discounted-cash-flow model cross-checked against peer multiples and asset value — meaning the market currently prices APP overvalued vs our estimate of what the business is intrinsically worth. Our fair value sits below the market, an implied -42.7% move to close the gap if the business performs in line with our assumptions. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation — the value moves with the inputs, which you can test yourself using the WACC slider below.
One of the lenses behind that blended figure is a discounted-cash-flow model, which on its own values APP at about $193.97 per share. The rest of this page walks through that DCF — its assumptions, reverse-DCF and discount-rate sensitivity — because it is the auditable anchor of the blend.
The valuation discounts AppLovin Corporation's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 17.1%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 59% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — APP would need sustained revenue growth of more than 25%/yr to justify today's price. We don't quote a precise figure here, because past about 25% a year the reverse-DCF stops being informative: it solves for revenue growth alone, holding margins, capital intensity and the forecast horizon fixed, so a price well above our fair value has nowhere to go but growth. The honest reading is that the price implies growth this model can't reconcile — not that we forecast it.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, APP's modeled DCF value ranges from about $167.12 to $231.68 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what AppLovin Corporation would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of APP's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind APP's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $5,480,700,000 | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-19) — Consolidated Statements of Operations, CONTINUING operations: Total revenue from continuing operations $5,480,717K. This is the advertising (Axon) business only: the Apps/games business was sold to Tripledot on 2025-06-30 and is reported as discontinued operations in this 10-K, so the FY2025 statements of operations are already a clean continuing-operations base (FY2024 comparative column likewise restated: revenue $3,224,058K continuing vs $4,709,248K as originally filed in the FY2024 10-K, the difference being the Apps business's $1,485,190K). Continuing revenue grew 70% in FY2025 (FY2024 continuing +75%), driven, per MD&A, by Axon Ads Manager: installation volume +3% and net revenue per installation +72%. REFRESH 2026-11-04: the Q3 2026 10-Q (filed 2026-11-04) prints continuing revenue of $5,950,950K for 9M 2026 (+55.7% on 9M 2025's $3,822,773K), with Q3 alone at $2,184,815K (+55.5%) — the base year itself does not move; the new actuals enter through the Year-1 build, the bridge and the census. |
| Base EBIT margin | 75.8% | FY2025 Form 10-K (filed 2026-02-19) — Consolidated Statements of Operations, continuing operations: Income from operations (continuing) $4,151,914K / revenue $5,480,717K = 75.75%. The filed continuing margin path into this print: 42.0% (FY2023, $772,411K on $1,841,762K), 59.3% (FY2024, $1,910,956K on $3,224,058K), 75.7% (FY2025) — the expansion is operating leverage plus a falling stock-compensation load (continuing SBC fell from $357,431K in FY2024 to $207,958K in FY2025 as headcount was cut), not a one-off gain: the $106,229K gain on the Apps divestiture sits in discontinued operations, below this line. H1 2026 printed 77.9% ($2,934,210K on $3,766,135K, Q2 2026 10-Q), so the base-year margin is not a peak the forecast has to invent — the forecast path starts at 77.5% and fades from there. REFRESH 2026-11-04: 9M 2026 printed 78.0% ($4,643,178K on $5,950,950K, Q3 2026 10-Q), Q3 alone 78.2% ($1,708,968K on $2,184,815K) — the margin is still expanding into the forecast, which is why the refreshed Year-1 margin (78.1% built) now starts ABOVE the original build's 77.5% rather than fading from it. |
| Forecast revenue growth | 52% → 35% → 26% → 19% → 14% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | FRED DGS10 — 10-year US Treasury constant maturity yield: Shared house input: the same 5.24% used by every researched model in this tracker (most recently TSLA, 2026-10-26), held so values stay comparable across companies. The current FRED print is lower (4.96% on 2026-10-22); refreshing it for AppLovin alone would break comparability — it is a tracker-wide update, flagged here rather than smuggled into one company's model. |
| Beta | 2.48 | Assumption — Yahoo Finance APP quote (delayed) — published beta; own regressions of APP on the S&P 500 from Yahoo daily/weekly/monthly price history: Published beta ~2.5 (5Y monthly; Finnhub reads 2.50, other quote snapshots of the same Yahoo figure read 2.54-2.56). Measured here against the S&P 500 from Yahoo price history: 2.48 (5Y monthly), 3.37 (3Y monthly), 3.40 (2Y weekly), 2.37 (1Y weekly), 2.30 (2Y daily). The value used, 2.48, is the median of the five windows and confirms the published figure rather than overriding it. No shrink is applied, on the TSLA file's logic: the windows describe the same company — a stock that ran from under $100 to a $738.01 high and back to the $260.25 close inside the measurement window (52-week range $255.46-$738.01) really is this volatile — and the most recent windows are not the lowest. A Blume-style shrink toward ~2.0 was considered and rejected on the same evidence. At a beta of 1.0 the value would be $392.88 — above today's price — so the discount rate is a real part of this gap, unlike Tesla's, where it was not; each 0.1 of beta here is worth about $7.24 a share (beta 2.38 prints $196.31). A beta of about 1.72 (a WACC near 13.3%) is what the price itself implies on this model's cash flows. REFRESH 2026-11-04: not re-measured at this quarterly refresh (the program's convention — beta was likewise held in the MA/HOOD/COIN Q3 refreshes); published prints at the refresh still read ~2.5 (Finnhub 2.53), consistent with the measured median. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — House default — long-run nominal growth ceiling applied across the tracker: Shared house input (2.5%), identical in every researched model in this tracker. |
| Diluted shares | 335M | Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (filed 2026-11-04) — Consolidated Statements of Operations (weighted-average shares), Consolidated Balance Sheet at 2026-09-30 and cover (shares at 2026-10-31): Weighted-average DILUTED shares for Q3 2026: 334,769K (9M 2026: 336,829K; Q2 2026: 337,031K; FY2025: 341,970K). This is the house convention (the META and NVDA models also divide by the weighted diluted count), and AppLovin presents none of the facts that made TSLA break it: no issued-but-unearned award block sits outside the EPS count (anti-dilutive shares excluded at 2026-09-30 were just 69K). For reference, the census at 2026-09-30 was 331,322K shares issued and outstanding (Class A 301,258K + Class B 30,064K, per the balance sheet; the cover count at 2026-10-31 is identical) — dividing by it instead would print about 1.1% higher, and the count is falling under the buyback ($2,920,719K of shares retired in 9M 2026; $394M of authorization remained at 2026-09-30 and the board added $3.2B in October 2026, $3.6B in total remaining — Q3 2026 10-Q Note 13), which this static denominator takes no credit for. |
| Market price | $410.00 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 04:58 UTC |
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Most undervalued stocks (per our valuation) · Undervalued Communication stocks · All valued stocks · Interactive APP valuation & downloadable modelTickerWorth is an educational DCF tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Figures are estimates derived from public filings and market data and can be wrong.