Is Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $152.81, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $95.27 and $346.44 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Abercrombie & Fitch Co.'s projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.2%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 65% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Running the DCF in reverse — solving for the growth the current price already assumes — the market is implying roughly 7.7% annual revenue growth for ANF. Our base case instead compounds to about 3.7% a year over the same forecast, so the market is pricing in materially faster growth than our base case. The reverse-DCF is a quick sanity check: it reframes 'is this stock cheap?' as 'do I believe the growth the price requires?' rather than arguing over a single point estimate of fair value.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, ANF's modeled DCF value ranges from about $100.84 to $158.86 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Abercrombie & Fitch Co. would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of ANF's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind ANF's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $5,266,300,000 | Abercrombie & Fitch FY2025 10-K (accession 0001018840-26-000012, filed 2026-03-26): us-gaap:Revenues, fiscal year 2025-02-02 to 2026-01-31: $5,266,292K. +6.4% on FY2024's $4,948.6M (comparable sales +3%), both 52-week years. THE BRAND MIX IS THE STORY: Hollister +15% to $2,742.6M (comps +13%) carried the year while Abercrombie brands fell 1% to $2,523.7M (comps -7%) (Q4 release, 8-K Ex-99.1, 2026-03-04). CROSS-CHECK, TTM to 2026-08-01: H1 FY2026 net sales $2,380.5M vs $2,305.9M (+3.2%), so TTM revenue is $5,340.9M. The leadership has FLIPPED since the base year: in Q2 FY2026 Abercrombie brands grew 8% (comps +4%) and Hollister 2% (comps -3%, against +19% comps a year earlier). |
| Base EBIT margin | 12.5% | Abercrombie & Fitch Q4 FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001018840-26-000006, filed 2026-03-04) + FY2025 10-K: ADJUSTED, BY ONE CLEARLY ONE-TIME ITEM, AND THE COMPANY'S OWN ADJUSTMENT. GAAP operating income $699.1M / $5,266.3M = 13.28% (us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss). That includes a $38.6M favorable settlement, net of legal fees, of payment-card interchange-fee antitrust litigation booked in Q2 FY2025 as a credit to selling expense. Excluding it: $660.6M = 12.54% (the release states $661M and 12.5%). The settlement is not a recurring operating economic, so the base uses 12.54%. FY2025 also absorbed ~$90M (~170bp) of US tariff expense net of mitigation (tariff history table, Q2 FY2026 release), which is NOT adjusted out — tariffs are treated as a standing cost. LEASES: $310.2M of operating lease cost (plus $192.2M variable lease cost) sits INSIDE this EBIT as rent, which is why lease liabilities are kept OUT of net debt. CROSS-CHECK, TTM to 2026-08-01: GAAP EBIT $732.4M (= $699.1M + H1 FY26 $341.5M - H1 FY25 $308.2M; the settlement sits in both FY25 and H1 FY25 and cancels) = 13.7%, or 11.8% without the ~$100M IEEPA tariff refund booked in Q2 FY2026. The base-year margin does not drive the valuation directly; it is the peak reference for the cyclical check (see forecast). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 5% → 4% → 4% → 3% → 3% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation. House input shared by every model in this tracker. |
| Beta | 1.20 | Assumption — normalized estimate (published ANF beta 0.966; peer betas from the same yfinance feed, read 2026-10-03): Published 5Y-monthly beta is 0.966. NORMALIZED UP to 1.20, which is CONSERVATIVE: it raises the cost of equity from 10.07% to 11.24% and LOWERS the value, by about $16/share (the published beta gives ~$138). Reason: 0.966 sits below the teen/young-adult specialty-apparel peers on the same feed at the same time — American Eagle 1.31, Urban Outfitters 1.26, Levi Strauss 1.31, Gap 2.06, Buckle 1.02 — and a 60-observation monthly regression has a standard error of roughly 0.2-0.3, so one company's figure is a noisy read of an industry exposure. ANF has no debt, so its equity beta is its asset beta. The 5-year window also spans an idiosyncratic turnaround (month-end closes went from ~$14 in mid-2022 to ~$178 in mid-2024, back to ~$76 in early 2025 and to ~$136 now) that a market regression partly reads as noise rather than market sensitivity. 1.20 is the peer cluster (1.26-1.31) shaded toward ANF's own figure. A discretionary fashion retailer whose shares moved 36% in one session (2026-08-26) is not a below-market-risk asset. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5% (roughly long-run nominal GDP), kept for comparability. Must stay below the 11.24% WACC; it does with a wide margin. Not obviously generous or punitive for ANF: the store fleet still grows internationally (APAC +19% in Q2), but units fell in Q2 and revenue was lower in FY2022 ($3.7B) than in FY2012 ($4.5B) — a decade with no growth at all. 2.0% would take ~$4/share off. |
| Diluted shares | 44M | Abercrombie & Fitch Q2 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001018840-26-000047, filed 2026-09-04): Q2 FY2026 weighted-average diluted shares 44,051K. DELIBERATELY CONSERVATIVE because buybacks are running hard: the count was 48,551K a year earlier and 52,971K for FY2024; ANF repurchased 5.4M shares ($450M) in FY2025 and 3.2M ($282M) in H1 FY2026, and shares outstanding were 42,434,377 at 2026-08-28 (10-Q cover). Using that period-end count would add ~3.8% (~$4.60/share). No credit is given for FUTURE buybacks (guided at least $500M for FY2026, $568M of authorization left) — they spend free cash flow the model already counts. |
| Market price | $152.81 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:33 UTC |
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