Is Amcor plc (AMCR) overvalued or undervalued?
Updated Nov 10, 2026 · hand-researched model · educational, not advice
At a recent price of $45.14, Amcor plc (AMCR) sits inside a range too wide to call either way: our valuation lenses put the business somewhere between $32.23 and $105.94 per share. They disagree too widely for us to state a single fair value. We publish the range rather than a midpoint because a number that precise would claim more than the methods can support. This is an educational model, not a price target or a recommendation.
The valuation discounts Amcor plc's projected free cash flows at a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.4%, with a long-run terminal growth rate of 2.5%. About 79% of the enterprise value comes from the terminal value — the portion beyond the explicit forecast window — which is typical for a stable, cash-generative business and a reminder that small changes in the discount rate or terminal growth assumption swing the intrinsic value meaningfully.
Sensitivity matters more than any single number. Across a reasonable band of discount-rate assumptions, AMCR's modeled DCF value ranges from about $39.53 to $164.60 per share. If that range still sits below today's price, the market is optimistic relative to the model across the whole band; if it brackets the price, the stock is roughly fairly valued on our assumptions. Use the interactive slider to see exactly where your own cost-of-capital view lands.
How to read this page: the DCF fair value is what Amcor plc would be worth if its cash flows grow as modeled and are discounted at the stated WACC. The assumptions table shows every input and its source; the reverse-DCF shows what the market believes; the sensitivity band shows how fragile the answer is. None of this is investment advice — it is a transparent, auditable framework for forming your own view of AMCR's intrinsic value. Figures update as new filings and prices come in.
The assumptions behind AMCR's DCF
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Base-year revenue | $23,506,000,000 | Amcor FY2026 10-K (accession 0001748790-26-000022, filed 2026-08-14): Net sales FY2026 $23,506M, +57% on FY2025's $15,009M. THE +57% IS NOT GROWTH: Berry Global joined on 2025-04-30, so FY2025 carried two months of it and FY2026 twelve. The 10-K splits the change: ~$7,864M (52 points) acquired net of divestments, ~$649M FX, ~$240M raw-material pass-through, and the remaining ~$260M (-2%) is the organic business, 'primarily reflecting lower sales volume' (volume -2%, price/mix ~0). FY2026 is therefore the right base — the first year with the whole combined company in it — and the first year that can be grown from. PERIMETER: this figure still contains roughly $500M of sales from non-core businesses that Amcor has sold or is selling (four sold in FY2026, mostly at or near 2026-06-30, for $298M cash; 10-K Item 1A says divestments 'comprising approximately $500 million' of the ~$2.5B non-core portfolio are completed or in process). That leaves in Year 1, so it is handled in forecast.revenue_growth, not by restating the base. CROSS-CHECK: Q4 (June quarter) sales $6,398M, +26% reported, with organic -1% and volumes +0.5% on the combined prior-year business; H1 $11,194M, H2 $12,312M. No later quarter has been filed — the next report is the September 2026 quarter. |
| Base EBIT margin | 11.4% | Assumption — Amcor FY2026 10-K (accession 0001748790-26-000022, filed 2026-08-14), Adjusted EBIT reconciliation: DERIVED, and it is the operating margin BEFORE amortization of acquired intangibles, AFTER a standing allowance for the restructuring Amcor books every year. Build: GAAP operating income $1,899M (8.08%). Amcor's Adjusted EBIT is $2,813M (11.97%) after adding back amortization of acquired intangibles $558M, restructuring/integration $266M, Berry transaction costs $32M, hyperinflation $19M, executive transition $15M, portfolio-review costs $22M, other $10M and an inventory step-up credit of -$6M. I accept the purchase-accounting and deal items as one-offs but NOT the whole list: (a) restructuring is perennial at Amcor — $97M in FY2024 and $97M in FY2025 before the Berry plan — so ~$95M/yr stays in as a run-rate cost; (b) Argentine hyperinflation ($19M) recurs; (c) the 'other' line nets $56M of one-off gains on business sales against ~$50M of pension settlements, legal and professional fees that also recur, so ~$25M stays in. $2,813M - $95M - $19M - $25M = $2,674M / $23,506M = 11.38%, used as 11.4%. WHY BEFORE ACQUIRED AMORTIZATION: the $558M is a non-cash charge on intangibles bought with shares, and it is paired here with a depreciation-only D&A add-back (da_pct_revenue). Taking EBIT after amortization and adding it back again would leave D&A permanently ~2pts of sales above capex in the terminal year, which overstates perpetual cash. Taxing EBIT before the amortization also gives it no tax shield, which is conservative: Berry goodwill is stated as not tax-deductible and book intangibles from a share deal generally carry no step-up. CROSS-CHECK: Adjusted EBIT margin by half was 11.5% (H1) and 12.4% (H2) — the business is seasonally stronger in the June half. Legacy Amcor's Adjusted EBIT margin was 11.4% (FY2024) and 11.5% (FY2025). |
| Forecast revenue growth | 0% → 2% → 2% → 2% → 2% | Assumption — TickerWorth's 5-year explicit forecast |
| Risk-free rate | 5.2% | US 10Y Treasury constant maturity (FRED DGS10): 5.24% on 2026-10-01, the latest published observation; program-wide input shared by every researched model. |
| Beta | 0.75 | Assumption — yfinance 5Y-monthly beta (0.576) + relevering estimate + post-merger weekly regression: NORMALIZED UP from the published 0.576 — conservative (raises WACC, lowers value). Reason: the 5-year monthly window is ~70% pre-merger, when Amcor carried ~$6.6B of debt (10-K XBRL, FY2021-24) against roughly $15-20B of equity (debt/equity ~0.4); it now carries $14.0B against $19.3B (0.73). Unlevering 0.576 at D/E 0.4 and relevering at 0.73 (17.5% tax) gives ~0.70. A weekly regression on the post-merger period alone (May 2025-Oct 2026, 74 weeks, vs the S&P 500, computed from yfinance prices) gives 0.82 — noisy, but it is the only window that measures the combined company. 0.75 sits between the two. For reference, packaging peers' 5Y-monthly betas run 0.35-0.67 (SON 0.37, ATR 0.35, CCK 0.57, GPK 0.65, SLGN 0.67). Each 0.1 of beta is worth about $6-7/share: the published 0.576 would give ~$82, a beta of 1.0 ~$58. |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Assumption — house default: House default 2.5%, kept for comparability. FLAG — this is generous for Amcor: organic sales fell ~2% in FY2026, the Berry legacy business came with years of volume decline, and the company is actively shrinking its portfolio (~$2.5B of 'non-core' sales under review). Packaging revenue tracks resin prices and food/health volumes, which argues for roughly inflation-level nominal growth over the long run, but no better. A 2.0% terminal rate takes ~$7.50/share off; ZERO terminal growth takes the value to ~$43. Well below the 7.43% WACC. |
| Diluted shares | 465M | Amcor Q4 FY2026 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1 (accession 0001748790-26-000020, filed 2026-08-12): Weighted-average diluted shares for the June 2026 quarter, 464.6M (full year 463.8M), POST 1-for-5 consolidation — the release states all periods are retroactively adjusted. CHECKED AGAINST THE SPLIT: 462.3M shares issued at 2026-06-30 on the balance sheet, and ~2.3B before the split (the Berry deal issued ~846M pre-split shares); 462M x the 5 Oct close = $19.3B, matching the quoted market cap, so price and share count are on the same basis. No buyback programme ran in FY2026; a renewal of the buyback authority is on the 2026-11-11 AGM agenda. |
| Market price | $45.14 | Delayed quote · as of 2026-11-10 05:35 UTC |
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